Goldman Sachs Added Harley-Davidson (HOG) to their Conviction Sell List

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by thisisjones, Dec 17, 2009.

  1. From

    December 17, 2009 6:55 AM EST

    Goldman Sachs added Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) to their Conviction Sell List with a $23 price target, citing downside for retails sales.

    The firm said, "Our channel checks point to Harley retail bike sales declines of 35%-40% yoy for October and November which we believe is below Street expectations. We attribute the decline to tightened lending standards at HDFS, and a recall of 110K touring and custom bikes due to fuel tank issues which we think is leading to deferred purchases."

    I find it very hard to believe that Goldman would come out with a public opinion to fuel a huge selloff on a company which is held by Buffett - one of Goldman's biggest shareholders. I will be buying more today.
  2. I may be wrong but as far as I remember, Buffet holds HOG 5 year corp. bonds @ 15% yield, not common stock.
  3. GS should add themselves to the convicted felons list.
  4. Isn't the term "conviction sell" rather redundant? All that it takes to exit a stock is to view the outlook as less attractive than your current holdings (which presumably are "conviction buys"). Thus you should be totally out of not just your conviction sells, but also your weak sells, your holds, and your weak buys.

    Basically, every stock that is not on your buy list is, by definition, on your sell list.

    It's like that classic stock rating - hold. What the fuck is hold? If something is not currently a buy, then you should not own it at all. You can't half-own something.
  5. "Hold" = public should maintain their position so analyst can get the best price while unloading theirs.
  6. If you were getting bonds with 15% yield, I'm sure Buffett's bought or sold CDS protection on them to control risk...
  7. i like that, cynical but you have to wonder
  8. Mvic


    Not surprising. The number of people trying to unload their toys right now means that few people need to buy retail.
  9. NoDoji


    "conviction sell" is secret long signal :D

    What I've wanted to know for a long time now is when Goldman upgrades a stock from "conviction sell" to "sell", what does that mean???
  10. "Sell" means "Oh-sh#t! We shorted too early!" and hoping for an effect similar to "Fire!" in a crowded theater.
    #10     Dec 17, 2009