today oil trade around $34. March CLH9 is trading around 41. Yes, they do. This is probably a warning shot.
You're trying to be funny, right? http://wilco278.wordpress.com/2008/09/17/goldman-sachs-cuts-oil-price-prediction/
Oil was supposed to have been $250 per barrel by now, according to Goldman. http://enewss.wordpress.com/2008/05/10/super-spike-theory-from-goldman-sachs-oil-to-250-its-a-sham/ And where the hell is Abby Joseph Cohen? I bet she sees a lot of value 'out there.'
If oil rises in price, it's only going to cut more demand. The BRIC countries are not going to turn around on a dime after the damage to their exports this past year. If gasoline rises above 3 a gallon within the next few months, demand will fall off a cliff beyond what we have seen. People are already in conservation mode with these lower prices, if they go much higher, there will be a major buyer's strike. OPEC is really shooting themselves in the foot with these cuts. They are getting less revenue and are not making up for it with more output. They think they can get oil back to 75 per barrel. But if it goes there, it will be fleeting as demand destruction goes into overdrive. The balance sheet of consumers worldwide can't support high gas prices now.
No, I am not currently long or short oil. However, I read a report from internet(rumors) that says China have built 3 oil reserve bases to store up to 120 days oil. Once they finish building the first 2, oil price reached $60. After the 3rd have completed, oil claimed up to 90+, but China stop buying oil for these reservoirs, only imported oil for daily usage. In December, there were at least 2 Saudi oil tankers have traveled into China. China may buying oil now. Of course, China consider its oil number top secrets of states, so no-one knows for sure. Recently, many foreign banks(European Banks) were selling significant amount China Banks shares, which just came out from restriction on Dec. 31. One of buyers is GS partner in China.
========================= Usually, yes, NYScal. But frankly even a high probability rule which that maybe is ; never confuse high probility with infallible. Oil has gone down over 77%/+, past 7 months[[uso/=+,similiar, markets are not exact anyway]; looks like an excellant trade- medium -multimonth scale in buy point. Not because Citigroup/ commodity co bought a tanker full; that mabe bearish with ''C'' many, many goofs, [again, see rule, top this post,LOL] But whem MS, Royal Dutch Shell buy tanker fulls, 77% off,; throw in a global war on terror, looks like good risk -reward.Islamics,Iran, Russa, Chavez hate Israel /USA more than they like their oil $upply. Mr. Buffet bought COP True ,USO , oil is bearish, below 50 dma, 200 dma, so its early buy, word to wise ; according to their prospectus, 10% is not a tracking error on USO crude contracts, its part of plan.Also they can trade gas, nat gas, heat oil, apparently 10% so it was never ''only crude contracts''. Long or short, 120- page+/ USO prospectus is an excellant educational read on oil business, oil risks.................................... Not a stock tip or prediction.