Goldman earnings forecast cut for Q3

Reality is finally kicking in for the analysts who cover Wall Street. With less than a week left before the third quarter ends on Sept. 30, it’s clear the pickup in activity recently won’t make up for the trading drought in July and August.

So each day brings more reductions in earnings estimates for Wall Street’s goliaths, including Goldman Sachs. A week ago, analysts were looking for Goldman to earn $3.33 — as of today, the consensus is down to $3.03.

On Thursday, Richard Bove, who has been bearish on Goldman’s third quarter for a while, weighed in:

It is typical for analysts who follow brokerage stocks to wait for the very end of a quarter before they publish their final estimates for that quarter. That being the case, it is likely that in the next few days there will be a series of estimate cuts on Goldman Sachs. My estimate, established a month ago, is about $1.00 per share below consensus.

A day earlier, Michael Carrier of Deutsche Bank slashed his third quarter number for Goldman to $1.95 a share, from $3.

What’s surprising, however, is that Mr. Bove and Mr. Carrier, like many analysts, remain bullish on Goldman’s shares.

Mr. Bove rates the stock a buy, with a target price of $169. While the stock usually trades lower amid downward earnings revisions, he thinks this time might be different, “The reason is that an impressive backlog is now building in both new issues and acquistions.”

Mr. Bove added: “It appears that the first half of 2011 could be quite strong. Plus, the year-over-year operating earnings comparisons could be unusually good at that time. Investors might focus on that possibility rather than the problematic third quarter.”

Mr. Carrier is even more optimistic about Goldman’s stock, putting a $200 price target on the bank — Goldman’s stock is currently at just over $147 a share..

Goldman report results on Oct. 19th — but expect the consensus to keep dropping as more analysts throw in the towel on the quarter, if not the stock.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/24/bearish-on-wall-street-bullish-on-goldman/