Wouldn't you sell your ES contract if you knew it was trading at a 30% premium to the underlying price of the basket of 500 stocks in the cash market? Or would you hang on to your ES contract and hope the premium grows bigger if it 'kept going up'?
Excellent Commentary All ................................................................... Nobody knows exactly....and while the thread relates to black pools etc.... The main factors for higher prices are .... Supply/Demand Bush/Cheney war policies Possible trading abuses Recent positive performance....money follows performance....and lots of money with nowhere else to go.... The Dollar Oil hedges The total lack of alternatives ...US energy policy...gratus Bush/Cheney One venue not exhausted is just how the dollar is hedged versus oil which is implemented by the largest oil producers via the likes of GS....no one has publicly discussed this aspect....There is a certain reason that the dollar oil movement are in tandem..... The dark pool issue can relate to aggravating price pressure above what used to be normal.... One has to look at what has changed in the last few years....Thus ICE must be examined.... However all of the above contain the right answer....The arguments relate to what weight for each Xi in the equation.... Nothing could be worse than listening to a bunch of journalists blabber about....particularly when they are tied to WS.... There is no conspiracy....however there is a lot of pressure on GS MS and others to make money wherever they can....considering the mobile mortgage losses..... They are not thinking conspiracy....just money....and how to get it.... You think that for 5 seconds someone like Mack or Blankfein would pause to think about the effects on individuals making $200 to $800 per month in the developing world...You know the answers.... Some parts of the developing world are coming close to becoming ungovernable...... To be sure ...one acid test for a turn around is when everybody is on one side of the boat..... The biggest caution light is when most doctors and dentists think that commodities are the place to be....and not stocks or the dollar.... Hint Hint