Golden Era of Wealth Has Arrived For Investors and Traders

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ByLoSellHi, Apr 4, 2007.

  1. Actually I found AC's post to be eloquent, idealistic and yet ultimately shallow and lacking in historical reference. Modern history proves that economic dysfunction is the catalyst of most military endeavors.

    As a contribution to GDP or as a budget deficit commiserate with production levels, Iraq is lacking in impact. To guy's in their 20's who know little of history Iraq seems like this giant, expensive quagmire. It isn't on a relative scale.

    Iraq is the cheapest war we've ever fought. Both in terms of real money and in casualties. (which doesn't justify it)

    Without the "Tech collapse" and deep recession following 9/11, I doubt the invasion of Iraq would have occurred.

    I also have full faith that Al Gore would've sought a stimulative war just as did George Bush.

    Ironically, one of the abject failures of the war has been the inability of the administration to fire up a fully employed American electorate who during the war saw their homes triple and stocks double. War is best sold as a remedy to economic calamity.

    One of the greatest market rallies ever was WWl's "war bride boom."

    Without the inflation that engulfed Germany in the 20's followed by horrific depression, it's doubtful Hitler would've found a viable political career. A depression weary Europe welcomed WWll.

    America wasn't doing much better. 14.6% of American's were unemployed in 1940. The war brought that figure down to 1.9% in 1943. Of course 500,000 dead soldiers helped get that number in line. (startling considering the U.S. population was 150,000).

    Korea, Vietnam and Iraq all suffered the same P.R. problem. Content people don't have the will for conflict.

    There's a big trickle down effect from deficits. AC doesn't recognize that concept.

    The HAL executive builds a new home in Aspen. Bingo, Mexican laborers being rewarded by Iraq. I stayed at a Fairfield Inn near Ft. Knox. The place was packed with African-Americans visiting their sons and daughters who're serving. Every bit of that trillion dollars finds it's way back into the economy. Even if it's just our HAL exec tipping an extra dollar at breakfast.

    One can only imagine the effect an even bigger, more expensive war can have on a smaller economy.
     
    #41     Apr 8, 2007
  2. In late `99 & early 2000 the market given the prestige of "new paradigm" by everyone....a completely new level that we need to get used to because it``s here to stay....even most bears capitulated at that point...........needles to say Jesses` famous quote stood he test of time "that the markets do not change but the suckers do because human nature does`nt change".

    we`re getting real close to a longterm top....it`s all we need is for some celebs to come out & start endorsing the market......oh wait,they already are.....cnbc`s trading with the stars......top is closer than i thought & everyone is leaning long.....all wee need is the missing catalyst.
     
    #42     Apr 8, 2007
  3. Cheney and gang were planning Iraq invasion since at least 1996. It was just a matter of time.

    Saddam started accepting payment in Euros in 2000. Shortly thereafter, OPEC had a meeting in which it was proposed that payment for oil would be accepted in euros as well. That made the invasion an urgent matter.

    Has little to do with the "tech collapse"
     
    #43     Apr 8, 2007

  4. Where was SPX in March 2003? SPX at 1400 and there's no war.

    The admin was preying for a weaker dollar. Don't even try to think otherwise. Besides OPEC was as responsive to Saddam as they would be to you or I. Why do you think he invaded Kuwait? He felt the Gulf States were fucking Iraq with over production of stated limits.
     
    #44     Apr 8, 2007
  5. wabrew

    wabrew

    I recall being in the chart room at fidelity investments in Boston in the early 90's after the Japenese market had moved everything to a 60 X multiple - and their technical guy, who was very bullish on Japan, said - you guessed it - " it's different this time"

    see chart to see what happened to japanese stocks since 1990
    chart courtesy of http://www.asiachart.com/weekly.html
     
    #45     Apr 8, 2007

  6. U.S. indices aren't anywhere near 60x P/E, though.
     
    #46     Apr 8, 2007
  7. billdick - thanks lol, no i'm not a carpenter but i appeciate it. i did really enjoy shop class though some of the other kids really had it in for me because the teacher would leave me in charge when he had to leave the room

    pabst -

    i get your point that on a relative scale the iraq war is moderate in both cost and casualties. the marginal cost/debt whatever you want to call it though is still financing we can't afford imo given that the debt has increased something like 25% in this presidency and looks exponential. clinton might have had all kinds of issues but he did ebb the trend there and bush sent it thundering back which to me is a strategic weakness, especially given that china is a major creditor

    the point i'm going for is that even if we accept some degree of wealth stratification feeding back in the form of HAL exec tips et al, i don't see how a little trickle in the form of reaganomics makes this war any less lopsided to the wealth transfer side versus the effective national defense strategy side

    simply put, it's costing lots of dough without widespread economic stimulus (as you point out) - but not eliminating real threats, more like proliferating them

    it just looks like a shrewd business strategy for a few main beneficiaries
     
    #47     Apr 8, 2007