Bylo -- who knows, you could be right. Your tone, however, reminds me of Harry Dent's "Roaring 2000's Investor" which, I believe, came out in the late 90's or in early 2000. I think Ken Fisher's research is still very bullish and although he's out there "pimping" his firm whenever I click on a financial website (like Yahoo Finance), his track record isn't bad.
BLSH, do I see right? Did you changed your mind again? few days ago you started a thread how bearish you are becoming: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=91003 Only yesterday you were saying, quote: <b><i> "Getting ready to load up on SDS when S&P broaches 1445-1450. Service sector data this morning gave me steel balls."</i></b> Note for readers: SDS is twice the inverse of the daily performance of the S&P 500 Index.... I like the high speed train bit - you really watch TV too much
Its amazing to just imagine the incredible wealth all these little monkeys in India and China will create for us!!!!! Why anyone would think they could pose an economic threat to us is beyond me!!!!! I think we can just sit tight, do nothing and let them work their little 60lbs asses off for $1 a day till eternity. They will always be our little slave farm and won't ever question their master and - oh God forbid - try to compete with their master for a piece of the pie!!!!!!!!
The 'monkeys' are quickly becoming the mass consumers of the world. Here's a fact for you. "In 2000, Chinese consumers purchased 4 million motor vehicles. By 2005, that number had risen to 19 million." Now, here's some opinion. "It is estimated that by 2020, 130 million cars will be sold in China." And some more fact. "Currently, there are 8 cars for every 1,000 people in China. In the United States, there are 500 cars per 1,000 people. China, prompted by the IMF, has modeled its transportation system after the United States, heavily dependent on an intra highway system, with many secondary roads." Some more fact. "Chinese wages have risen from approximately $300 per employee in 1998, to $3,200 per employee in 2006." More fact: "China was responsible for 4% of the world's economic production in 1972. In 2006, China was responsible for 15.7% of the world's economic production." Decide what you will about the 'monkeys' of China, India, Taiwan, Russia, Poland, Brazil, Argentina, Hungary, Mexico, etc. We can either choose to find ways to grow with them, or to grow alone. Their money, in an electronic world, is all good. It is a painful process. Economic isolationism will destroy us, however.
Perhaps Buylow's current prediction of a "bull market" and depression are not as far apart as most here seem to think. If a "Bull Market" is defined as a rapidly increasing price (IN DOLLARS) of US stocks and a Depression is defined as negative real growth. (For two quarters etc if you like.) I.e. if the dollar rapidly loses value in terms of purchasing power, Iran et al do not accept it for oil, the very oil dependant US may go into depression and yet the price of real assets (in US dollars) may go high. For example, if you buy Chrysler, you can always pack up the metal stamping presses, etc. and ship them off to India, etc. Have you switched POV ByLow, or are you just operating with different definitions from some here when speaking of a "Bull Market"?
And you think these guys will have any mercy with the US economy and send care packages if Uncle Sam falls apart? This is a global redistribution of wealth and the wealth is wandering from Western Europe and North America to Russia and Asia. "How could it be bad if other nations take economic leadership?" Go ask Great Britain after the Empire fell apart after WWII. There is no partnership here, there is no mutual benefit. These guys are here to take a slice (or two) of the pie and they do not take prisoners. I am not calling for protectionism. We should just face reality. Western economies will ultimately suffer (on a relative basis) and there is no way around it.
We have to realize our competitive advantages and disadvantages. Labor is migrating to the lowest bidders in the new world. Those that refuse to realize, accept and work around this fact will never devise the means to raise their own living standards. I think the wealth gap in the U.S. will widen, even if taxes rise. It has never been a better time to be intellectually gifted if profit maximization is the end game.