absolutely..I set my "NASCAR trading vehicle" up like, veteran Race Car Driver Cale Yaroborough, liked his race cars...Loose! (does anybody know if Cale passed or is still alive?) I remember many fine days watching NASCAR and Cale go around the track..he liked the suspension loose so he could "feel" the track...he claimed. He manhandled and muscled that car around, for the full duration of the race... OvalCurvedThinkingSavant
"There are not any stops in this method" Well, I think there is one stop in your method, its called a margin call or account blow out. I am not trying to bash. I think you have some great ideas. However, I would never trade a system that does not have a target and a stop unless you are able to hedge your risk. I remember watching TV one day, and saw reports of London getting bombed. I immediately shorted GBP/USD, and made some money.
You are absolutly correct. I am developing this..and I believe it should be from MAE or MFE....or something to do with WHERE the entry was made in the progression of the arch...(I have a vision of a complex Excel calculator, where the trader enters in many variables from the chart unique to Arch Trading and gets a stop) But no matter where the stop is...News can take it out...I do not trade the first week of the month until a Friday has passed. With this method being so loose the risk to benefit would be upside down...like 3:1....but trading the arches, which give a long term trend direction creates a high winrate...The "Custom Arch Demarker" defines the entry... walterjennings stated something rather provocative...You will eventually FIND the DD... < snip > if you were to keep increasing leveraging you'll find a draw down which wipes the account out and stops the system
I hope you fellah's are finding this project as interesting and stimulating that I am...Again..this thread has turned out to be everything that I wanted it to be... I suspect the coders and backtesters will come up with some stops! Thanks for reading folks! and stay tuned...all will be disclosed as this is ET's system! Michael B. something to ponder..if there were not any stops, then the evolution of arch trades, could be a list of long term failed trades, as the 100% winrate cannot last forever.
I work during the day and just love to put on trades in between phone calls and enter stops and limits...then when I am talking I will hear those marvelous executions and most of them will be the limits hitting and not the stops...!!!! I believe we will need wide stops on this loose discretionary method...but i have no problen with market based stops...BUT NOT STOPS BASED ON RISK TO BENEFIT OR SOMETHING ABOUT YOUR CONDITON AS THE MARKET HAS NO IDEA ABOUT THAT!
In my opinion (take it with a grain of salt as I am a noob), without leverage there is no meaningful gain. Every system eventually drys up so once a system is found to be profitable, leverage must be used (wisely of course) to milk it for what its worth. Having said that, obviously increasing leverage consistently eventually finds its way to a drawdown which "feels dark" and makes you cry! but we can reverse this statement by doing this: start with a fixed size, say X. Every trade is traded with the same size until a drawdown occurs. Wait until that drawdown nears your "maximum # of consecutive losses" (can be found thru backtesting), then slowly start increasing your leverage (i.e. 2X) on subsequent trades until your first profitable trade, at which point keep the size once again constant (2X), and repeat. This way your leveraged (2X) size will eventually find its way to profit and stay there long enough to be consistent with backtesting results. About stops, off the top of my head for now only, it would be a simple idea since you are using the CR indicator, to keep a stop X sigma away from the lower/upper CR, just as a start as this would be in line with your system fundamentals. Also, the sigma can be checked for entries which would tell you easily how "far" price is from the daily CR before pulling the trigger, something you already do but visually. Will implement this too in WL CR. Getting ahead of myself again...but at least the protective stops should satisfy those seeking stops and leverage can be had, safely and consistently. MAE and MFE to come...
FIFO ...no...read above...we need more than that...The Demarker defines the average in's. We need a wide stop...THAT IS MARKET BASED. Targets are 2* ATR of the secondary Arch...that is an example of market based. Now to put the cherry on top of the Arch ...we need a MARKET BASED CurviStop I have a few ideas..but would rather "drag" some more out from you guys before I share...There are many good contributions here in this project thus far. ideas...post them...maybe the coders need to wait a little and test...no hurry as more information may be needed. Michael B. now...do not let this talk of Cherries and Virgin Arches dissuade you from your goal...
Definitely need to see all this on my platform to get a better understanding of whats actually going on. Been too focused on the indicators, haven't understood the system yet. But, will leave that to later when everything is in front of me to validate.
atta boy...think "market based". Many coders and backtesters get trapped into placing the market in a "can". fifo you are no different... I am no different. I am a discretionary, manual trader and have learned that I can outperform by practicing my discretion. I do not have a "can"....but the market provides me with an inflatable balloon...it inflates and deflates as I progress with my entry... FullOfHotAirSavant
...I have a vision of a complex Excel calculator, where the trader enters in many variables from the chart, unique to Arch Trading, and gets a stop. I do not want trailing stops ... I need set and forget and re-enter with the CurviDemarker...Must be market based on the 1) Arch maturity....2)the secondary arch....3)ATR.....these are all examples of market based input (two of them unique to Arch Trading) for Excel.... Remember..keep yout calc's loose..I do not want overoptimized...as the market changes. I actualy believe that we can come up with a calculator...then can backtest it later..."Market Based" people...Market Based!