"Golden Arches" Introduction

Discussion in 'Forex' started by ElectricSavant, Feb 10, 2007.

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  1. This closed thread serves as the introduction to a complete Forex trading method, using arch's, thus "Golden Arch's" is born :). As the discussion and trading of this method continues, this introduction and the following posts, can be edited. I put this here for an easy point to refer to, rather than having ET guests, scrolling through seemingly endless threads, to find the latest changes.

    I believe this is new ground and seemingly, unpublished material. The origin of the CurviLinear 2nd Order Regression indicator, may rest with a little known tradestation code written by an author, not disclosed to me...I only rely on an email, I received from FXCM, as to where they got the indicator from for their integrated MarketScope charts. Anyways... through the work in the discussion of this the code, it has been cracked and enhancements made. It has been adapted to three platforms that I know of, thus far.

    Polynomial approximations are not new ground. It's the work and the discussion "turning out" a published & complete trading method from the many guests in ET, that is presenting the new tradable and unique ground to identify trends with. Further discussion, reveals entry points and methods combining other TA, to illustrate trading profitably and consistently for retail traders to learn and prosper from and to truly consider themselves "EliteTraders".

    Do not let anybody fool you...you read it here first in ET..It is archived, for all to read & learn from. Stay tuned... for more public domain systems that will be archived here and hopefully unique to the EliteTrader website, presented with only the integrity that ET can bring..."no strings attached".

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    [​IMG]Discussion & the development of this method can be found here:

    [​IMG]The trades can be found here:


  2. This is a method using technical analysis of regression, combined with exhaustion. You could say it buys/sells on dips/rises in trend direction.

    This method will hold trades 2-28 days. It will interpret a direction, using a med-term daily trend indicator (showing a direction that can last as long as 1 yr). This method defines direction & then works its way down to entry.

    This is a 24hr. method. It generally, does not trade the beginning of each month, until the first Friday has passed. This is when many news reports are new & the NFP comes out. The volatility leading up to and during the National Farm Payroll report (NFP) can be surprising & the method can use more leverage, when abstaining from trading, during that time. I find that I can bank more money trading the 3 wks. with higher leverage, than trading all mo. with lower leverage.

    There are not any hard stops. There are indicator based exits, that usually take the trade out with a profit :) There can be pairs put on, that hedge another pair & there can be basket exits of losers and winners, netting zero.

    There are pre-determined targets using market based ATR calc's. This method can also use pairs that hedge each other to maintain a low drawdown during the interim, while waiting for the targets to hit. Every effort will be made to enter early enough in the trend to achieve a profitable exit.

    The method can trade as high as 50:1 managed, combined leverage, but not usually. I start getting uncomfortable with 10:1 leverage or more, unless the basket has a lot of hedging going on.

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    I use MT4 charts & I found a feed with 66 pair (North Finance) plus Gold & Silver. This charting platform is free and available to all and thus it is used to illustrate with. I trade with Oanda.

    1. There is a download of a custom indicator, that you will need (See the following links). This custom indicator that you download, is the esoteric and not very published "CR indicator" (CurviLinear Second Order Regression). You will get 1 curved blue line in the price pane of your candlestick chart with 4 fib based deviation lines & 2 high and low deviation lines as end-caps. This CR indicator resembles an overlay of a curve that slides and adjusts with the advancing right edge & you cannot scroll back and look either...it is a changing and rolling forward dynamic of a 299P linear regression line, with a curve added to it. You can anchor it and stop the rolling forward by drawing a horizontal orange dotted line to mark your TP after you enter.

    ------------------- You will need to remove this line to reset the CR after you exit.

    You will also get some statistics in the top of your chart, which are rather important, as you will see in my trade commentary, accompanying the alerts.

    2. The 2nd. indicator is from MT4's existing indicator library, named the "DeMarker indicator". It is placed, in the indicator window below the price pane. This method uses a 10p setting. Delete the levels and replace them with green & red colored horizontal lines drawn as a background at the 0.95 & the 0.05 levels. You can color the top line red for short & the bottom line green for long. You can also add some weaker breach lines as dotted lines at the 0.70 & the 0.30. Now, I know this is not the traditional use/settings with the DeMarker indicator, but I am not trading high prob zones, tops or bottoms. I am just using it for entries, exits & "average in's" during an exhaustion/reversal moment.

    3. The 3rd. indicator is from MT4's existing indicator library, named the ATR indicator. It is placed in the indicator window below the DeMarker indicator. I use a 21p setting. I squeeze that indicator pane manually for the ATR as I really do not care about the wiggly line...I just need to be able to see the latest value.

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    Entries are based on the breach of the DeMarker Indicator in the 4hr. periodicity. This secondary periodicity (4hr.) that has the DeMarker breach, must also display a CR arch agreeing with the daily CR arch which is the primary periodicity direction. Be cautious during mature arches & virgin arches are best.

    [​IMG]Step One: Watch for breaches of the levels in your watchlist on the 4hr. chart with the DeMarker indicator. This is your sig for action & there is always something happening. This 4 hr. chart will also determine your TP, through the doubling of the 21P ATR optimally rounded or one of the inner band borders, optimally rounded. Remember, the 4hr. (secondary) and the Daily (primary) CR arch's, must agree about direction and be early enough to give you the time to reach your TP.

    [​IMG]Step Two: As long as step 1, fits into your basket of pairs that are not repeating too much of the same currency as you do not want to get overexposed to one countries currency, then pull the trigger and enter. Advanced traders can also enter currencies that go the opposite direction of an existing open trade to hedge it, if it is taking longer than expected to exit, with the targeted profit. Some traders prefer to only trade, with a pos interest differential, but this is not really where this method makes it's money.

    [​IMG]Step Three: So now you have entered your trade. You can now at your leisure add your TP limit order and draw your dark orange dotted horizontal line to mark the spot and anchor the CR in its calculation. I use 2*21P ATR in the 4hr. periodicity, optimally rounded. I can also use the inner bands. Let's say you are entering a short, high above the inner bands. Take the larger of the two targets...2*ATR or the value of the upper band, optimally rounded. If you take the upper band value, remember its a changing thing each 4hrs. The 4hr. candles in MT4 open at 19:00, 23:00, 3:00, 7:00, 11:00 & 15:00 (mst) and your target grows larger at each formation of the new 4hr. candle. In the consideration of, "to use the band or to not use the band", notice the statistics and percentage, if it is not significant then simply use the ATR approach

    The combo of the custom arch indicator & the unique use & setting of the DeMarker indicator, together with the use of the ATR indicator, should reveal some interesting & profitable trades.

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    One more little detail that I learned here in ET. If your Long, round your target up to the nearest 4 or 9...& if your Short, round it down to the nearest 6 or 1. Stay away from 0's & 5's. I have coined the phrase, "optimal rounding", for this technique.

    The method can "average in". Note, that when this method adds a trade, the TP will be changed to an exit yielding 2 * 21 period ATR of the secondary confirming CR timeframe used to "average in" with from the average trade price. Some of you use the inner band borders & this paragraph will not apply.

    So... "average in's", do not increase profit with the ATR method, but follow price to insure a higher winrate. So again, Generally speaking... the method "average's in", with the use of the Demarker. Again, the top line means short (0.95) & the bottom line means long (0.05). It is good to enter in the direction that both the Daily CR & a secondary CR agrees with. The weaker dotted breach lines can be used as early entry points in the DeMarker. Again, I cannot stress this enough...the longer timeframes are safer such as the daily & the 4 hr...& virgin arches are best. Using "average in's" together with the polynomial approximations (The CR indicator) in the method can be quite powerful & high winrates can be achieved.

    As mentioned, There are not any stops in this method. A discretionary exit from a bad call can occur after the "Daily CR long term bias" has run out of steam & the the, "inherently faster periodicity Demarker", has not signaled an exit out of the trade or a 2*ATR w/optimal rounding limit order has not triggered or the inner band borders have not hit. This is very rare indeed & would indicate that getting into the trade during the latent stages of an arch ("Mature Arch") should have never been risked in the first place. You can place a hedge with a pair that is signaling to tame the DD during the wait.

  3. I have 34 pairs in the watchlist including Gold & Silver:
    XAG/USD   XAU/USD[/size]
    Note: Be careful how you open trades in the above pair. Do not get too overweighted in one currency with your open trades. Also, you can use hedging with pairs to utilize a sort of "slowing" for a trade with a longer hold time to keep UPL tamed. All of the arches come to volition eventually and you will learn to trust them. Longer timeframes and their arches take a longer time.

  4. MT4 Custom Indicators Download (CR price pane bands & Statistics)

    Guys..this is so easy...

    Just close your MT4 and open the zip file below and extract all files to: (copy and paste this text below in the extraction wizard)
    C:\Program Files\MetaTrader - North Finance\experts\indicators

    Re-open MT4 and then drag the files named, CR v1d into one chart from the navigator menu and save the template and viola...load the template in any chart you wish

    This is for a black background.
  5. Here is the "Interest Cow" spreadsheet for those of you interested in interest rate differentials.
  6. Here is an annotated screenshot of a signal in cable:

    There is one word that says "left"...it should have said "right"...sorry...but this will cause you to pay attention...can you find that error?

    There is an ergodic indicator in there...You can use other indicators also for confirmation. I currently just use the Arch's and the Demarker....
  7. Here is a Handy Excel spreadsheet for your trading statistics that is appropriate for this trading method and others...
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