The mean reversion trades are very profitable...probably my favorite...they tend to be profitable immediately. So many "trends" are a psyche job to suck traders in before the reversal, in my opinion. To me, trends definitely aren't "obvious", but there's more than one way to beat this game.
In this modern age, I doubt COT data is relevant / useful. anyway, if you find COT data useful, go ahead and use it.
I don't know why I can't get most current chart, but this is a chart of managed futures (hedge funds) long and short through 7-24-18. The hedge funds have been a dumb money indicator for the last several years now.
I don't use it for day trades or swing trades. I use it for investing purposes though...when and where to accumulate mining shares. I don't really invest that much in the metals...mostly junior miners right now.
perhaps yours is a subset of the 'large spec' category.... https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1 here you see the large specs is net long... but is less long lately, that is in sync with your data.
Investors purchase gold for a variety of reasons, but the following are the most common ones: Hedge against inflation Hedge against global instability Speculate on demand growth Portfolio diversification
decades ago, people bought gold (and sell US$) to hedge against instability / crisis. recently people bought US$ (and sell gold ) to hedge against instability / crisis.
And no longer true with inflation. World (the developed one anyway) is trying to stave off deflation.
On ASX today, (11.50am) gold index XGD is down 3.4%. That's an ominous sign, but will wait for close to see if it recovers. Keeping in context tho, still above 2, 3, 4, & 5 day lows, so no panic required yet. St. Barbara, gold mkt darling, down 9%.