Something to consider: Speculators are hedge funds and retail. One is more short than ever and the other is long. Who wins? The larger of the two? Commercials are bullion banks (JP Morgan, etc.), mining companies, and jewelers. All seem to be more neutral right now. Is there a contrarian signal in any of this without a currency comparison? We'll see.
futures are zero-sum, so the long positions have to equal short positions. 1 random article means nothing, some guy maybe desperate with a position and wrote something trying to pump it up. COT is the official picture. imagine all these years the large/small speculators have been long... how much physical have then taken? Here is another indicator I like... it's called youtube. Search for 'gold and silver' and see how many price pumping vids show up... and almost universally they get 100:1 like/dislike ratio.. shows you retail is loaded with this stuff and have been desperate and looking for comfort in these videos. by the way also search for 'stocks are undervalued'... do any vids show up at all? lol.
Whenever someone says that, I ask "the trend from when to when". Example: From 2005 until now GLD +160%, SP500 +140%. Gold has outperformed the S&P for the last 13 years? So, is gold still in a bull market? Just being a devil's advocate here.
Yes, zero sum. Total of large specs plus small specs should be inverse of commercials. I'm always talking about the large specs positioning because that's what I believe is key. They're usually net long, but their short positioning swings from extremes...just like right now. It makes sense the little guys are very long right now, because the big specs are very short...compared to previously. Wouldn't you think the hedgies would move the market more than the small retail schmucks? As far as physical being taken? My understanding is there's way more paper than what's being taken. That's another story... https://tsi-blog.com/2015/07/gold-commitments-of-traders-cot-nonsense/
I day trade GC everyday. I've never looked at what the trend is supposed to be. It's all what price action does. Many trades are mean reversion.
check the COT... large specs are net long right now, how do they get 'very short'? anyway - it's not about retail schmucks moving the market.... it's about where they have been pushed to, by the brain washing from the smart money, be that commercial or large spec.. hence the perfect contrarian indicator. COT, commercial, large specs are difficult to read. Commercial may have the first hand info, but some are forced to hedge because they are commercial and have to keep the biz running... large spec is a mixed bag, you have some really smart people there. but small specs - you can categorically call them the dumb money.