well. long term seems more like downtrend to me. and past few days gold has been ranging. anyway do your own analysis and trade according to your trade plan.
I still have the Q contract on my screen, but will probably go with what is most active. Yes, definitely the Z...they won't allow the Q anyway. Just set a stop limit order for long ...if it gets there...for a day trade.
I see gold going down medium term possibly. I still invest and prefer precious metals as a long holding going into the end of this year ...and 2019. We'll see.
check fxcm centiment on gold... 9:1 long/short... it's doomed. gold is the ultimate 'feel good' trade.. the stock market looks pricy, the bonds aint returning nothing.. heck even the word 'gold' is nice to say.. and you can hold in your hand and feel rich lol... that's why so much retail money has piled into it. unfortunately, 'feel good' trades are mostly bad trades.
Interesting. I've never used "retail" to determine sentiment in gold. Always looked at the commercials vs. the large speculators. Currently, the large specs are holding massive short positions...they're usually on the wrong side. As far as gold being a feel good trade, it hasn't made me "feel good" in a long time LOL. Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought FAANG was the "feel good" story of today. Most of the common people I talk to these days only want to talk about TECH stocks...or fricking bitcoin. Just my 2 cents.
finviz COT showing both large and small traders been long for years... where do you see shorts. I love retail.. they are always wrong lol. you will feel good if you hold FAAMG... but retail is scared because they look 'too high'.... check fxcm sentiment... been using it for years... retail is still under-participating in this bull run.
From what I understand there's usually been more long positions than short positions through every kind of market. What everyone watches is how short positions go from heavy to light. Sure, long positions change too, but there's always a certain percentage held...do to hedging purposes I believe. Right now, the large specs (hedge funds) are short more heavily than usual. https://www.investing.com/analysis/is-gold-now-a-beach-ball-under-water-200335135
Gold is largely the inverse of the US Dollar Index, so gold traders are de-facto currency traders. FX analysis is more likely to be useful for trade signals than COT sentiment on gold futures.
Yes, I could see that for short term signals, but what about a month or two out...or longer? The COT combined with some TA can be enough for a monthly position trade. Many times these hedge funds get caught on the wrong side and now we have a short squeeze for example that can last for awhile. I see it over and over every year. Personally, for day trading I don't need any currency data...never have. If it works for you that's awesome.