gold

Discussion in 'Metal Futures' started by killATwill, Oct 12, 2005.

Gold over the next month: your opinion?

  1. buy

    9 vote(s)
    50.0%
  2. sell

    5 vote(s)
    27.8%
  3. hold

    4 vote(s)
    22.2%
  1. i just puked.
     
  2. Sorry about your stomach Kill,

    Gold historically drops the last two weeks of Oct. After today I just may short it for a few bucks.
     
  3. in the last two years gold has done very well the last two weeks of Oct. I just read a great paper on the determinants of the gold price --> http://econwpa.wustl.edu:80/eps/fin/papers/0403/0403003.pdf

    they are...

    1. currency purchasing power
    2. inflation
    3. inverse of price earnings (this was a big suprise to me)

    this cleared up a lot about the possibility of gold rising during a deflation. if p/e ratios rise, gold likely rises too in almost any environment.
     
  4. ha, i just mentioned the last bit to Kudlow in an email and he read it on air. even called it a good point, LOL.
     
  5. Babak

    Babak

    [​IMG]

    The seasonal seems to say that being long here is going against the flow.

    KaW, thanks for the link to article.
     
  6. well, it's a slaughterhouse today. especially for the shares.:eek:
     
  7. looks like in the short term once again

    precious metals are outperforming any of the

    fiat currencies ...

    ADEN sisters comments below ....

    www.kitco.com/ind/taf/nov162005.html


    (gotta love those newsletter writers though
    at the end of their bullish commentary one see this note ... )

    -Gold could then decline in a downward correction to test its major 65-week moving average now at $427, but the major trend would remain up.-

    in other words
    ... a highly leveraged trader could be wiped
    out on any wild drop to the 65 week MA , but
    the Aden sisters would still be bullish on gold
    and gold could of course run its course higher
    (but without the trader who lost his trading stake)

    :p
     
  8. I like chart #3 in their article.

    Oops, sorry, fed won't report that any more after march.