Discussion in 'Metal Futures' started by killATwill, Oct 12, 2005.
i just puked.
Sorry about your stomach Kill,
Gold historically drops the last two weeks of Oct. After today I just may short it for a few bucks.
in the last two years gold has done very well the last two weeks of Oct. I just read a great paper on the determinants of the gold price --> http://econwpa.wustl.edu:80/eps/fin/papers/0403/0403003.pdf
1. currency purchasing power
3. inverse of price earnings (this was a big suprise to me)
this cleared up a lot about the possibility of gold rising during a deflation. if p/e ratios rise, gold likely rises too in almost any environment.
ha, i just mentioned the last bit to Kudlow in an email and he read it on air. even called it a good point, LOL.
The seasonal seems to say that being long here is going against the flow.
KaW, thanks for the link to article.
well, it's a slaughterhouse today. especially for the shares.:eek:
higher overnight so far after a huge day today to the upside ...
maybe later this yr I will sell some silver dollars I own
looks like in the short term once again
precious metals are outperforming any of the
fiat currencies ...
ADEN sisters comments below ....
(gotta love those newsletter writers though
at the end of their bullish commentary one see this note ... )
-Gold could then decline in a downward correction to test its major 65-week moving average now at $427, but the major trend would remain up.-
in other words
... a highly leveraged trader could be wiped
out on any wild drop to the 65 week MA , but
the Aden sisters would still be bullish on gold
and gold could of course run its course higher
(but without the trader who lost his trading stake)
I like chart #3 in their article.
Oops, sorry, fed won't report that any more after march.
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