Gold will never go below $1,200 per oz again.

I see us climbing into the $2,000 - $3,000 range and then simply gapping up to $5,000 over 2-3 weeks as we saw in 1980. The time to sell is following the second or third runaway gap.

Gold will go higher than anyone now expects, no doubt. Expectations will morph and snowball ala Soros' 'reflexivity' as prices continue to climb.

Oil in the $150-$200 area is a red flag to look out for one more correction.

 

When do you reckon $5000 would be reached?
Late next year?

 

Interesting thread here. I am in the camp of +$2000 myself. At this point, $1500 in a few months is very possible and after that who knows. I expect a revisit of the late 70's and so far we haven't even gone parabolic on the weeklies.

 

Timing is tough. All I can say is, I expect $1,400 before we see $1,000 again. Once we get there we'll have another look.

Something to consider is that the price of gold is a 'state of mind.' I'd recommend everyone go back and read Soros' on the reflexive nature of bubbles in preparation for whats in store with commodity prices.

 

With regard to timing, note that in 1979-80 the blow-off top occurred late Jan and early Feb, when gold typically reaches its high for the year. All things equal, my bet is that we will see this next blow-off top in either late January or early October. Now what year it will come in ... requires more consideration.

Meanwhile, look for a solid gold rally in the last two weeks of December, when trading will be thinner.

 

Sounds like a good plan. This thing can run much higher, I'd just bail on any serious drop. Can always buy it back once it makes subsequent new highs.

 

Like everybody else will

 

Gold is a hedge against the U.S. Dollar. As it continues to perform poorly, more and more will pile into it. As the USD bottoms out, and eventually recovers gold will decline an collapse as people will pile out of if in droves. Who in their right mind will hang on to a commodity as it free falls? Compring gold to oil is foolish. Oil is a necessary commodity worldwide. Gold is used fore mainly jewellry! Not a necessity by any means by anyone.

 

Yes, I know. I was making a point as simplistically as possible (for your benefit). Try to take the analogy in the context it was given, without getting into a scientific basis of proof or trying to deflect the conversation away from the possibility of a dumb call.

 

Gold prices are rising because of World War III fears. I do not see any other reason for record-high gold prices.