The problem with most people (except the gifted) is that the mind is very much influenced and limited by what is the seeming current situation. A classic case would be this current stock rally from March 09. After some time, everyone (including N. Roubini et al), threw in the towel and no one dare to talk "market crash". You now only read about "...recovery has started...though weakness to remain", "worst over...". The reason is simple and not simple at the same time. It is simple if your are an insider like Bernarke, Geithner, etc... Given what insider informations they posess, some knowledgeable in this ET forum may even foretell what is to come. This is the difficult part - most are not trained in finance nor have the most critically needed informations. So we only had to rely on what is seemingly obvious, the stock market has moved up, things getting back to normal. Relevant to this stock market rally, I read (a month ago) an article (Market Oracle or Financial sense ?) which argued that this Quantitative Easing by the FED cannot be stopped - it had to be a "permanent" feature in fiscal policy (the author seemed knowledgeable but not me). If it is so that QE has to be "permanent" in order that things don't collapse, then there's trouble. What trouble I don't know. Back to gold. What if I suggest that gold will be USD10,000 in 2020. Incredible ! Yes ! As most of us are are very much imprisoned by the present and also most are not expert. That's the problem ! Gold was USD200 - 250 in 2000 and now USD1000, a five-fold increase. The economy / DJIA had a bull run from DJIA 500/1000 in 1980 to 14000 by year 2000. That was a non-stopped 20 year credit driven bubble and year 2000 is the top and 2007 is the double top and things have come to a head. It was global money supply that moved it. The fiscal situation in the US is worst than in year 2000. Add to that there is the USD reserves held by China, Japan and others that compound the fiscal situation of the world. Everyone had to follow the US to print money (can someone please confirm) in order to maintain some sanity in the forex market. All these will mean turmoil in currencies market or monetary reform, etc. Bullishness for gold and stronger than at the start of year 2000. 10,000 = (1000 x 5) x 2. My analysis is only amateurish. My point is we are easily confined by the present and cannot see far ahead - except for the gifted. My prediction from crystal grazing is gold USD2000 in 2012.