gold top $1138 or $1300

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Wallace, Nov 8, 2009.

  1. Please explain to me the reasoning behind "inflation adjusted" prices in gold.

    If gold is priced in USD, how can inflation not be fully represented in its price?



    Cheers.
     
    #11     Nov 24, 2009
  2. Subdude

    Subdude

    I tend to agree, and now even the Fed has acked they are creating asset bubbles. How much more of a warning does one need? The ride down should be even more fun than watching it go up.
     
    #12     Nov 24, 2009
  3. #13     Nov 24, 2009
  4. my new target

    $3750

    not sure of the yr it will reach it

    bling bling

    sigh

    :(
     
    #14     Nov 25, 2009
  5. Well, US paper currency is also priced in USD, but its value has gone down over time due to inflation.
     
    #15     Nov 28, 2009
  6. Guessing price targets is a fools game.


    Fiscal stimulus -> no end
    Loose monetary policy -> extended period of time
     
    #16     Nov 28, 2009
  7. new$

    new$

  8. And it takes many more dollars to buy products/services. Yet GC is not at the number the GC/inflation folks think it should be at.

    This conversation is me and a colleauge of mine who runs money and is the most succesful investor I personally know. He has been a GC holder for a long time. And was also NET short into the crisis...truly gifted trader. I posed the GC/inflation question after reading this thread :

    -----------------------------------------------------------------

    me : I truly don’t understand the "inflation adjusted price" argument. If gold is priced in USD, how is inflation not reflected directly in its price at all times?

    him : $1,000 was the critical resistance. Keep in mind that based on 1980
    high of $850, and using
    U.S. Government C.P.I. figures, equivalent price is over $2,300.
    Alternate inflation figures equate to over $6,000.
    Higher interest rates turn everything; very simple. How does that happen? From 1/80 to now, gold has gone from $850 to $1,180, or +39%.
    Cumulative inflation per U.S. Government over that period has been +170%.
    $850 + (170% x $850) = $2,300
    To rephrase it: If the 1980 high price of gold kept up with the C.P.I., it would be $2,300.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Gold is clearly not reflecting as rapid a debasement of the greenback as many think. And if it hasnt tapped these levels during the deepest recession/financial crisis/multiple wars(decade of hell???) in decades what makes anybody think it has much higher to go?

    I know nothing. Move like a jellyfish with the tide. :)

    Not short nor long gold. Just speculating mentally.
     
    #18     Nov 30, 2009
  9. You never take the historical high of something as a basis. It reached that height on sheer speculation.
     
    #19     Nov 30, 2009
  10. When a trader that stomps the averages for 25 years tells you something, you dont cherry pick. You listen to it all and if you`re lucky you digest it properly and come away better for it.

    I wasnt going to tell my friend the previous high was on ferver. He knows that. He also knew that the 2000 bottom was a once in a lifetime oppurtunity.
     
    #20     Nov 30, 2009