$400. Without a sea-change in global markets and the USD, it remains a sleeping currency, waiting to see if it will ever be awakened.
435 give or take a few bucks. I think if it was going to move to the 500 range it would have last fall.
I rationalize my speculative price of $525 based on the following: Money is coming out of EUR, Its main destination is probably JPY, It needs other places to go, Gold is the world's real reserve currency. -ss P.S. Please post replies, but don't flood my inbox with e-mails (especially not ones with attachments to obscure gold research papers). In other words, this is just my opinion.
Part of the current gold price strength is the metal taken out of circulation by the ETF. If gold held by ETF doesnt increase, where does the metal go? look out below in gold.
Considering the streettracks GLD product only started trading at gold spot $394, I hardly think a $50 run up during the dollar's decline was particularly significant. Once upon a time, when I knew such things, I seem to recall that the producer price of Gold from the big mining concerns was about $360-$380. Under that level, it didn't make much sense to produce more. That's a decade old news, so I have no idea what it would be now although I suspect that it has not decreased. The massive dump off in gold down to the sub $300 level was just the buying opportunity of a lifetime, IMHO. At current prices, its more or less "fair value." Don't expect it to be a performing investment unless things really turn to garbage, in which case, if you don't own it already, good luck getting your hands on it. It really is a lousy investment if you think about it. It just sits there, doesn't gather interest (unless you have a lot of it), isn't THAT easily convertible ( you need to find someone to buy it, and haul it out to that person) and you worry that someone will take it from you. And unless the end of the world comes, you probably aren't going to get rid of it, so you might as well take the cash and burn it. Target $400. Range $380-$440 for quite a while.
mark cuban made a good point... if the world does melt down then gold will be the last thing on people's minds... guns, ammos, and bread...