I often find when someone suggests to agree to disagree, they have reached the point where they can no longer argue their position logically with enough force to win the argument.
No, I've simply realized that you have no responses for any of the facts I've laid out, you just keep talking about reverting to slavery or something. There's nothing more for me to say, I've made the case, backed by historical evidence. All you've offered is the idea that, well, maybe this time is different, not based on any evidence, but simply because "this is America, and America is different". Sorry, but that's not going to cut it in my book. So if you won't or can't refute any of the facts or evidence I've provided, what more is there for me to say?
Actually, in most "debates," it is not the logic that matters so much, but who is "listening" and "objecting" and "verifying." Peer review is at the heart of _universal_ acceptance of "force of argument," even in a field of extreme logic and objectivity as Mathematics. Otherwise, it's just a bunch of people on the Internet cackling off... nitro <- signing (cackling) off
Why on earth would someone who doesn't take 'tips' for trading, look to be tipped wrt long-term investment? . I agree.. he's totally awesome. He also faces a completely different set of challenges than I do, esp. dealing in size.. I doubt very many.. One of the problems is size (as mentioned before). Mining concerns of the size that he would be interested in are usually hedged out the wazoo. Regardless, neither you nor I know what he thinks about gold, and from my POV it doesn't matter very much. I do doubt very seriously that he's short gold, which is the only thing that might raise my eyebrow. Same with Gates and his huge holdings in PanAmerican Siver (PAAS). I'm not sure that its relevant. Gold shares were a good investment to make in 2001. I still think they are now. Action in the dollar (over the past 12M), action in Gold itself, and legal maneuverings by one of GE's subsidiaries (Blanchard) (and the whole ball of wax around it, including the conspiracy theories) are all confirming the investment to me. You don't. I doubt there's much I could say to you to convince you otherwise. I spend time on ET learning about trading. My original focus is/was from an investment perspective. I've done fairly well for someone my age. I'm not a trader yet.. I screw around with the es in the mornings (I swing traded options before the PDT expansion).. It's easy to let go of your long-term convictions on somehting that swings around that wildly. Point being that if one is a trader, and can't maintain different perspectives (or doesn't want to do so) then any investment is a bad idea. T-bills, or euro-demoninated bonds for the adventurous, are a much better idea. Regards, Laz
babak, great post! i'd like to add the impact from credit expansion and the potential for credit-quality implosion. alot of hot money chasing anything with a yield - particularly real estate in "hot" markets - and including MBS REITS, some with like 8 to 1 leverage and some are lending long and borrowing short! WTF? this was written by doug noland and i got it via a link from prudentbear.com. sit down and convert the following percentages to ratios: like, 24% equates to 1 in 4???????????? (the link to the article is at the bottom of this post). "In a clear sign of serious unfolding problems, the MBA survey reports that 12% of Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans are either in foreclosure or delinquent. And for the first time, the MBA broke out subprime data, although warning that the 1.2 million unit universe should ânot be considered representative of the total subprime market.â All the same, the delinquency and foreclosure numbers are quite alarming and indicative (along with FHA data) of fundamental systemic lending shortcomings. For the nation overall, 14.78% of conventional subprime mortgages were past due, with 8.58% in foreclosure. Some of the worst performing states in terms of total delinquencies include Pennsylvania (17.19%), Indiana (17.16%), Michigan (16.84%), Ohio (16.52%), Iowa (17.3%), Missouri (17.09%), Georgia (16.45%), North Carolina (19.54%), South Carolina (23.12%), West Virginia (17.36%), Alabama (19.76%), Mississippi (23.66%), Arkansas (17.21%), Louisiana (20.64%), Oklahoma (17.04%), Texas (16.45%), and New Mexico (19.05%)." these figures should be front page news! lets face it, the FED is reliquifying like money is free! if the consumer is the economy and he is in debt up to ass with the refi market is tapped out, then you've got problems - which will magnify exponentially as the real estate market contracts, because the mortgage debt does not! as the supply of USD increases, foreigners are faced with devaluation of US assets in "real" terms. as asset values/prices decline, they get hit with a double whammy. in the past, even if their investments were static, they could arb the currency swings against strong USD and look like geniuses when the reported results to their 3rd world investors (which includes france). they are now exiting USD and US markets - with good reason too! they can go into asia or europe, or they can go into gold, which has an increasing demand base as USD value declines and is an accepted store of wealth - people are not only buying gold for investment - they just want to retain their real purchasing power/asset values! if you shutout the noise, the markets are talking... capital spending is not driving the economy, earnings are not driving the economy, etc. - what is driving the economy is credit expansion - the problem now is that everyone is all "debted-up" and with nowhere to go... not in the US anyway. if you can buy an auto with 0% interest, no payments for 6 or 12 months and large price reductions/concessions, what good is another 25 basis point FED cut? greenie is in dump poop. i think the only way he can keep average "meatwhistle" above water is to continue to inflate the money, which will contribute to eroding credit quality.... that is the straw now teetering on the camel's back. rates are low, credit is available and credit quality is deteriorating... look at the figures above if you doubt that! 12% is appx. 1 in 8 loans!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! what happens if the economy continues to flounder, or gets worse and the consumers starts to SAVE via reduced spending, or worse stops servicing his debt? personal, corporate, municipal, state and federal entities - all have too many examples of spending more than they bring in and high debt obligations.... the weak will go first, just like the subprime borrowers detailed above... what happens to r.e. values as those homes are lost and remarketed by lenders at a time when supply is increasing... sound like higher values to you? i dont think so! so where do you want your money? debt - NO! USD paper money - NO! international equity markets - MAYBE? US market - ????? real estate - PROBABLY NOT NEW PURCHASES? gold - AT LEAST SOME! someone posted a gold chart - add VOLUME to that chart and tell me what you see? and im not saying it isnt at trendline resitance or that the longer-term chart doesnt show a downward sloping channel. again, gold is acting as a safe haven for purchasing power as well as speculation, and its not just because of the war! take a look at the games they are playing argentine debt and then consider the loss in buying power of those bagholders. http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_home_com.asp?category=18
When we take war out of the equation, we will have a much better picture of the real value of gold to investors, won't we? Same with the dollar, same with oil, same with the equity markets once the "war premium/war discount" is taken out of these markets. Until that time, it is just fear and speculation. If I were going to invest in a business for the long run, I wouldn't do so on the basis of fear and speculation.....or what could potentially go wrong. I would prefer to invest in something with a proven track record of earnings and growth, or with a higher probability of an outcome that just the "potential" of a credit crunch. Japan has delayed their "credit crunch" and banking problem for years and years.
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. 1997 Chairman's Letter " Our second non-traditional commitment is in silver. Last year, we purchased 111.2 million ounces. Marked to market, that position produced a pre-tax gain of $97.4 million for us in 1997. In a way, this is a return to the past for me: Thirty years ago, I bought silver because I anticipated its demonetization by the U.S. Government. Ever since, I have followed the metal's fundamentals but not owned it. In recent years, bullion inventories have fallen materially, and last summer Charlie and I concluded that a higher price would be needed to establish equilibrium between supply and demand. Inflation expectations, it should be noted, play no part in our calculation of silver's value. " I have no clue if they sold their silver that yr or still own it.
Buffett has generated some income on the silver though leasing it out, not through the sale of it thus far. Were Buffett to be seen either selling or buying silver, can you imagine the impact on that market? http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/butler020499.html