I may enter a one or two lot position here on gdx or slw as a play on the miners. Starting to get really oversold and are coming into support. Edit: Bot 1 Sept. 20 1675 put for 12.50 Back in as I like the short here and it's not a rushed entry like this morning. I've learned over the years for me it's always better to let the S&P trade for at least 45 mins before opening a trade. Most important thing is staying patient.
Didn't add anything and will hold my positions into the Obama talk tonight. Normally, I wouldn't do this but I A) Have profits left in my gold long, which is a freeroll from prior profits, and B) I think both markets are so oversold/ overbought that any news could only help my positions and not hurt them. For example, if Obama says war, I win big, and if he doesn't I don't think I lose that much more. GL All.
Will be looking for weakness in the overall market today as well as some strength in the gold market to confirm what appears to possibly be a swing low in the PM's today. Still sitting in my open positions and just sold 3 Oct. $26 gdx puts for 1.13 and will be looking to add some calls to create a synthetic but I have to be careful here as this account falls under the PDT rule and I don't want to burn two day trades here.
Wasn't able to post it in real time because I was kind of busy today with things outside of trading. I did not add to my gdx position but I did get long 4 TLT Oct. 103 calls for 1.80. I still think the indices are a short here and will be looking to sell weakness tomorrow if I can. I also think gold and the miners are at a turning point here and should have a big move in the next couple days. My guess, obviously is up and I believe the market confirmed my thesis right today with silver and the miners outperforming bullion today which usually indicates upcoming bullishness. Open positions: Long 2 mgc @ 1285. Short 3 Gdx Oct. 26 calls @ 1.13 Long 4 Tlt Oct. 103 calls @1.80
Still in my MGC long and still liking gold here. Obviously wish my timing had been better on the puts I sold but will watch today's action and not come to a hasty conclusion. Hard to really determine anything from this early price action because of the fat finger or manipulation last night. I think there is an algo that hunts the shit out of obvious spots for technical stops. 1350 was the obvious number for the stops and somebody generated like 7.5k of volume in 10 mintues last night at about 1 central. Lucky the bond long is working out here and I'm not going to take a total bath.
Not trying to criticize, but have you thought about at what point price action would reject (at least for this series of trades) your bullish thesis on gold?
No worries and I'll gladly take the criticism. I have no delusions of perfection. I'm probably going to start peeling some off today even if I'm still bullish as obviously the market is telling me, harshly, that I'm wrong. More than likely, I'll pull some if not all of the short puts as I don't really want to be short gamma if shit gets crazy. As much as it hurts with the mgc, like I said I'm basically, free rolling so I'm a little more reluctant to pull that and will prob keep that on or bring it down to a 1 lot. I'm still reluctant here as we are sitting right on the 50 day and we are very very oversold but I've been around long enough to know that some risk has to be pulled here. My ultimate stop with MGC would be 1285. I guess I should also say I know a guy, kind of like a mentor, that trades pretty large and he is long. While def not the basis for any trade it makes me feel a little more comfortable staying long. Maybe that's a bad thing.......
Cool. I very much appreciated your comments helping to pull me back to reality in my journal after my delusional series of back-to-back short trades in a rising market last week, so just trying to return the favor as I noticed your gold positions are facing some headwinds. Good luck!
Lol, it helped. I'm exiting everything as I thought maybe we would garner some kind of bounce today but it looks fruitless. More than likely after a day like today we open down or poorly again tomorrow and I'm not going to hold it over the weekend as that would be too risky. Sucks because I gave back a bunch of profits basically all on staying in the mgc trade. I was up maybe 100% in the last month and a half, and now it's maybe 40% and I'm pissing about it. Lesson learned is that I should have sold out of my entire position instead of 75% of it. Tough lesson but a good one. Needless to say my ego got the better of me too. I had never had a huge trade like that and I guess I had money signs in my eyes. The other funny thing is reading my first post were I'm pretty bearish on 8/28 and then I am already trying to get long again on 9/3. Lol that's patience. Also why am I long when I'm bearish and exiting most of my position?