GLD price move has been cooperative so far with our earlier assessment. GLD was taking a little bit of a breather but has continued downwards. Althought that little congestion might not look threatening I was acutely attuned to price taking a turn up from there. Those who have less fear issues would have let price gyrate and even pull upwards as the price move upwards wasn't even close to 50% to cause serious doubts about the down trend. That being said the SL was broken at one time and it is at that time that the decision to stay in or give price some room to breathe needed to be made. I decided to not mess with the price, but if one had exited after SL break and then re-entered when weakness developed again it would have also been fine. Yesterday's move was tricky as price was not breaking below the swing low created before the break of SL. The lack of continuation to the downside was giving hints that perhaps price is having difficulty moving down and an up move or a trading range might be in the offing. These are the dilemmas a speculator has to deal with. Today though price has dropped below the swing low and now we have a new SL. There are times when it all becomes mechanical and simple and then there are other times as I wrote above when uncertainty creeps in. It's dealing with this uncertainty somehow that makes or breaks a trader. Sitting there like a deer in head lights is not the best of conditions for a trader to be found in. Having a plan that at least has some logic and testing behind it, even though it may not be perfect is better than that state of immobility. For us now until this SL breaks we're just going to keep true to our short position. Gringo
Gold is just chop right now. I've traded gold and according to my past I trade it better than any other product I trade. I for the life of me can't figure out what it's doing right now. Congrats on trying to decipher that madness, you're a better man than me. Also, I should add that I wonder when the cftc is going to do anything about the obvious front running that has occurred on like the last 3 or 4 major numbers/ fed meetings. Seriously, it's like 30 secs to a minute early. How do they not notice that?
I know what you mean. Up until a month or two ago I would steer clear of gold at all costs. It was one of the most convoluted movers. Although now it's getting better, thanks to a better plan and consistent thinking as a result of it. As I wrote earlier the past few days were a bit tricky and tested my patience to stick with the plan. Gringo
GLD price is continuing down to new lows. We can draw another tighter supply line (SL - dotted) to trace this new steeper movement of price. So far we stay short until price gives us a clue that the momentum is shifting. That's going to happen when the SL is breached. Without worrying about the news we remain loyal to how price behaves and haven't done much for at least 9 trading sessions other than drawing the supply lines. There might be potential support in the 121.5 -123 range or thereabouts. This has been highlighted to give a bit of a heads up in case price starts to find some support around here. This also means we'll attempt to stay a little bit extra vigilant as we have been short some time and eventually price does go in the opposite direction. The major question is when that time comes, how do we know whether it's a pullback or a trend change? These are the questions that need to be answered if one is to become independent as a trader and speculator. Gringo
Q's have retraced and price is stalling in the vicinity of 82.5 that was previously a support. Now it's acting potentially as resistance. We don't know if price is going to drop from here but below 82 a short entry might trigger for me. There are those who'll question this due to quantitative easing and all kinds of other reasons. The fact is, that if those external factors did come into play price will halt and start rising again, telling me to get out of its way, and I'll promptly comply. In the absence of that I must do what the demand and supply dynamic of price is telling me to do. For now that means staying ready for a possible short if more weakness develops. In case of strength price might just go back in the previous trading range or beyond. So far that hasn't happened. Sitting on one's hand when there's nothing to do isn't a bad place to be in. A tiger first sits silently in wait before it pounces on its prey. Gringo
more downside expected the coming days: http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/2013/11/alea-iacta-est-die-has-been-cast.html
GLD could be shown to be moving within this trend channel. It's another way of looking at a slightly bigger picture and so far the downward stride price has been taking. Gringo
10 pages already, I have to put my self into reading this thread. I have not seen it. Here is my update on the sectors. I was thinking about shorting XLP but I am not quite sure given S just below it. The only long that remains from the initial batch is XLK, but if buyers cant make a new high it will begin to look suspicious to me.
QQQ had price open at 82 but it didn't drop below it. Even if it had dropped for a few minutes that wouldn't have made much difference. Our short never got initiated, and the tiger never pounced on a prey. There wasn't a suitable prey within reach. What happened after the open is that price kept going up and up, into the previous trading range, and then poked above it. Price: moving up strongly Trend: Long term is up, intermediate sideways, and shorter term possibly up Support/Resistance: price poked above R (breakout) Demand/Supply: demand took over and was clearly in charge Volume: higher than normal, showing higher intensity in favour of demand Current trend of the market? Up Our place in the current trend? Possible breakout above trading range Possible time to enter? After a retracement when price rises for a long position If any part of what I am saying confuses anyone they might need to go to the 'If you can draw a straight line' thread and burn some midnight oil. Gringo