If you're applying the SLA, you don't enter within the range unless you intend to reverse at the other side. In this case, there's no trade until the range is exited, then you short the retracement. But you may be taking another direction. 18 people want to know.
I believe you're right Db. There seems to be a small bias in my head towards the down side and it is perhaps causing me to find a reason to short. The lower high to me showed some weakness but my mind somehow gave minimal attention to the obvious TR that is in place. The short in gold might have also contributed to my preferring the short side. All these reasons are not necessary. What is necessary is to see what's in front of me and the basic questions. 1. Current Trend? Upwards. 2. Our place in the trend? In a TR. 3. Entry? After TR exit and RET. Despite all my obvious greatness, I am still prone to some human frailties. :eek: The advantage of writing my thoughts publicly is that the correction is fast in the coming. Thank you for staying alert. I would like to encourage the secret 18 to participate as their participation will mosts likely accelerate their learning curve. Just as I am still prone to error, so are most of you. It is by putting your thoughts in writing you can realize the conflicting nature of your own minds and its wondrous interpretations. And it is by getting these interpretations challenged your analysis is going to become whole. Gringo
First of all thanks for sharing your trades in real time, it is interesting and insightful to read your thoughts before entering and whilst you are in the trade. Regarding this NQ short you suggest; 1-You seem to assume that because price is at the top of the 2009 channel, it is likely to reverse. However, trend lines don't provide S/R, so I wouldn't be looking for a reversal. 2- Even if you want to short, price hasn't broken the DL decisively, there has been no rejection, no down-wave indicating sellers are strong at this level. 3- Do you plan your trades EOD or do you follow a 60m chart during the day? If you place an entry order, EOD or on the 60M, sometimes price will hit your entry and retrace against you, and you will be in the red. In my experience, you need to allow for this to happen, sometimes you'll take a loser, but others price will continue in your direction. As long as you've tested the setup thoroughly, you know you are making money in the long run All the best and great work.
tupapa, You are right on all accounts. The bias got the better of me in this case. Right now I am not trading. Since the "Straight line thread.." of Db, I have incorporated the lines better in my trading and have tightened some loose ends. This for me is part forward testing and part correct analysis. I am playing around with using 60 mins and daily bar intervals for my trading. What seems to be the case here is that instead of EOD completely, the almost EOD seems a better option. As an example if the market triggers an entry and the day is about to close I would likely enter instead of waiting for the next day to open. Waiting usually has caused gaps leading to worse entries. I would probably just place a buy or sell limit on RT trades when the time comes based on either a daily bar interval or 60 mins (most likely daily). The thing that I have noticed with price action method is that one could make a decision after the close and things still won't get too much out of hands. It's only when the market is changing direction often and not trending that these nicks and bruises become annoying. Once a trend begin we're usually close enough to benefit from it. It's the middle part where that needs handling. I am waiting for the beginning of next year to go live again. Strangely, I have always have had problem dealing with the price behaviour of gold. For some reason it would trump me a lot of times and I wouldn't know why. Adding the demand/supply lines had eliminated the chaos and turned it into a more user friendly and enjoyable experience where the decision making has become easier. I guess we are learning all the time and as the time goes on I hope to get better. Using price action the major losses per trade are quite low. I have spent a better part of my trading career terrified of the unknown and now it is the unknown that brings smile to my face. Gringo
Why do you call it a bias? If it is about the direction, isn't the QQQ slanting down after the current top? Is what you think is a bias is rooted is speed of movement?
Price is in a trading range. Although it is slanting the weakness hasn't been strong enough. The support of the trading range hasn't given in. The error was not only in jumping the gun, but also in seeing what wasn't there. When and if price weakens we'll all know about it and then I would attempt an entry. Gringo
I now see your point better. Thanks for the explanation. QQQ now at 82.78 (around 1PM). It seems to me it wants to go down, and they may have sealed the longs in 82.81 and above for today. If they close it towards the bottom (or below the .70, some people may see things differently).
Price for QQQ has broken through the support. Even if one is not eager for shorts it is wise to curtail the longs for now. I know there have been a few false alarms on my part before, some due to my errors and some due to market just being the market. So here I am again head bowed and brain telling me why do I need to torture myself in front of other fellows who might think me smarter if I only posted philosophical mumbo jumbo instead of really showing not only the why, but also the how and what to do. If price returns back then obviously the seriousness of the break might be negated. But until that happens look down for answers. Gringo
Is your answer still the same? Notice how quick it slipped to 81.50 , a level the bears may not longer be sure to short it without worrying about a bounce.
The trick here is not to be long. The initiation of a short depends on whether a person prefers breakouts or retracements. Gringo