Trading via the SLA/AMT is largely an intellectual exercise when looking at daily bars. For one thing, the term "trading" is stretched to the limit. For another, the risk tolerance required is way outside that of the typical retail trader. And of course there is the problem of the lack of "action" (for most retail traders, even the 15m bar is like watching one's nails grow). All this is why I chose the hourly bar to illustrate the pdf. So I go back to the default: locate the extremes on the weekly chart and go from there. Whether this means incorporating the SLA and trading daily or hourly bars is up to the trader. One who finds a nice entry on the weekly at one extreme and does nothing until it reaches the opposite extreme can feel like a complete fool if it reverses off the median and goes right back to the upper limit, which is of course by then higher. It doesn't take extensive backtesting -- more than five minutes -- to see that one is better off working with a smaller interval than the daily. Or abandon the idea of trading countertrends entirely and take only those bounces off the lower limit. The problem with that, of course, is that we haven't touched the lower limit since last October. So, again, ultimately, what are one's goals? What does one want out of this? If one bought seven years ago, great. Otherwise, a more nimble approach is called for.
In other words SLA-AMT document has already taken all this into consideration and given a working plan using hourly bar intervals that just needs to be used at Weekly/daily extremes of TC or TC. Quite a few examples are also available in this thread. I've looked at the hourly from 2003 and by Jove they are quite exploitable! Maybe I'll post a few Weekly/Daily/Hourly from that time frame. Gringo
QQQ Devja Vu continues. I have delved deeper to see how this would play out if we were in fact having a deja vu. This of course doesn't mean it's going to happen this way or that I am privy to some Fed insider information regarding the market. The market might very well stabilize and breakout above into new highs. Nonetheless, to see this much of a coherence can only be a work of art. Maybe it's a proof that God exists! I can sense stardom coming my way. Gringo
Yes. The hourly bar was a conscious decision. I wanted something that would be available to someone who isn't daytrading, which is nearly everybody, including those who claim to be daytrading. But I also point out frequently that the principles are the same, even if one is trading off a tick chart.
the question is , are u willling to put the money where the mouth is ? do u have a plan for either scenario... ? btw. what would your plan look like ?
I show my entries and exits quite regularly. If I decide to enter it will most likely be posted here. I only have one scenario planned for this level, not two. I am a Scribbler, hence, SLA-AMT is my modus operandi. Gringo
107.75 wasn't much of a hindrance for demand (less optimal area). Price has gone up strongly and 109 region is up ahead. If price weakens around 109 or thereabouts I have plans to enter a short. The stride has been steady and upward, and demand has not let up this trip around. If price chooses to perform a spectacular BO I would have to wait and see how the RET comes along. First though, is the patience to wait for the right moment, and not rush the entry. Hurrying has never satisfied a woman of taste, nor has it helped grow one's capital for good. The areas of interests are shown in oval eggs, that have the potential to hatch into chicks. It's price that will be telling us whether it's time for the eggs to hatch. Gringo
Price is moving up and retracing after a DL break. The time for me to stay alert is here. The highlighted yellow area is the area of interest. Now from the current position we don't know whether the demand will propel price all the way up to the optimal level or whether it might withdraw weakening price before that. Previous swing high is 108.38 and ideally price weakens before getting there. In case price can muster the strength to go beyond that previous swing high I'll have to reassess to ensure the strength isn't actually coming back. The yellow area has all kinds of previous levels of interest and downward sloping small trend channels converging around there. This also means a quick exit might be warranted in case things don't pan out as expected. Previous highs have been around the 109 level. Levels: 107.75, 108.25, 108.75. Now I am watching these levels in the context of a retracement. There are only plans for a short as of now. Gringo
Price has had a run but suddenly appears to be losing steam around 108 (NQ 4425). The behavior seems to be changing a bit. It's not all clear weakness but no time to flinch. Edit: Added chart. Edit1: Price stuck around 108. Not going down so far. Edit2: Removed 5min chart.