Time is not an issue, the behaviour of the price is. The fact that the price didn't behave as I had anticipated it to forced me to scratch it. I don't wan to sit there trying to guess when the drop is going to come to a halt. Yes, at times I might miss out, and the price might even open gap up tomorrow, but that's the price I am willing to pay for mental peace. When price couldn't rise the probability of a resumption to the downside became higher. I am actually upset with myself for recognizing the beahaviour as being not strong and yet not scratching it at the first sign of trouble. Gringo
I guess different strokes for different folks. All I'm saying is on a non-scalping time frame giving a trade 1 bar is sub-optimal. The probability of a trade can't change in 1 bar. You seem shell shocked right now imo.
GDX is again giving an entry on the hourly. There was a more reasonable RET and price is showing some strength. GLD/gold futures are also in giving similar signals. Daily charts and price behaviour isn't something I like for the trade but the signal came on the hourly so the hourly entry it is. For GDX price has mustured enough strength to avoid going down to the previous low and has turned upwards. This shows early sign of strength and the anticipation is that price will behave and get some footing this time. Otherwise there's always the magic word: scratch. Gringo
Lets have a look at GLD today. The price has been moving up since the beginning of the year. There's a trend channel we can draw. It's not too hard to notice that the price since mid Feb has been spending time around and above the upper overbought supply line). This gives us two sets of information. One, that demand is stronger, and two, that we better stay alert as the string might be overextended. We also notice that the price lows stay clear of the mid and stay above it. I was even tempted to think perhaps the stride had changed so much as to consider the dotted trend channel with some extra importance, that is, before the unfolding of the price behaviour last week. Last week price dropped, without a pit stop at the mid, all the way down to the low of the TC. The fact that demand was overwhelmed by supply, as evident from the higher volume during this drop, suggests that perhaps the nature of the might might put to the question. It's the first time price has not been able to resist the down push and instead of a courageous fight simply couldn't handle the pressure. This is also one day when price reaches the mid where the volume is significantly lower. On this day even lower supply is able to push the price down, and demand doesn't even turn up for some kind of a fight. This means the buyers were not much interested and they let the poor sellers lower their price without showing much interest in buying. A sign of weakness some say? This drop to the lower TC doesn't mean the trend is over, yet, but has only given the first hint that the strength isn't the same as before. As we can see the dotted demand line has been breached. The breach was pronounced and then there's the complexity of having a hinge also in the foray. Price breaks out above the hinge. The break out fails. Price drops through the hinge and has a break down, obviously, to the downside. Is this break down the real deal or another fake out? As can be said almost always: Anything can happen. What we do now is see how price reacts after this drop. Is it going to show strength and move up with aplomb, or is it going to act sickly and have trouble around the apex of the hinge? Will price go all the way up to the top and beyond or turn somewhere in between? Will it rest? Oh, there are so many possibilities and the fun has just started. Gringo
Gold has been screaming short after it failed to hold at 1390 TWICE. Good luck with the price action theory lmao.
Yes, I have made mistakes a few times, or shall I say had a string of trades that had to be exited. I wish you all the best. Gringo
Price for gold futures has been dropping quite consistently. It is now in the proximity of the 50% mark. This represents the half way point to the previous rise from 1182 to 1392. Whether this has any significance so far isn't clear. In face, price hasn't shown any sign of strength. Any chance of long cannot come unless the supply line is breached and then there's a RET of some sort. I am simply keeping an eye on price. I wasn't able to identify in time the start of the drop in price and attempted to go long two times in the past which resulted in losses and exitd. So I am wary of long side but await a signal if it does comes. So far there's not sign of it, and even it came it would take a few days for it to materialize. Price has dropped quite a bit and generally speaking there are rebounds and bounces along the way. The weakness is evident and perhaps it's would be wiser to keep an eye towards the short side in case a rise does come. I have no idea at this time what's in store and for me this time is just for waiting if one isn't already short. Gringo
GDX hourly is rising after a retracement. The daily GDX is at the 50% point. Although, the strength isn't as pronounced, the signal is here, therefore I have gone long. If it doesn't maintain strength then again I'll probably have to exit. It's part of the game and I just follow it. The thing with daily is that the bounce around 50% has been meager. But for shorter term like hourly that may not hold as much sway. I don't deny the weakness but what else can a trader do if not follow his own plan? Gringo
Gold had a very steep drop a from mid Mar to Apr. Beginning Apr, enough demand showed up to breach the SL and then had a retracement for a potential long entry, for those who would disregard the severity of the drop. For purely mechanical entries there was the long. It also didn't pan out too badly as price is still going up. What I am looking at is the potential breach of this DL whenever that comes. Price is rising towards the 50% mark from the previous drop. It's not yet known whether there is enough demand to get it there. In case price breaches this DL before that level and has a retracement for a short, I'll be ready to take it. For the time being the trend is up and demand is in charge, therefore, no shorts as of yet. Price also could go beyond the 50% level showing stronger demand and then a decision will have to be in that case how to deal with a short if it comes. Most likely it will be taken with fewer funds. Similar behaviour can be observed in each: gold futures, GLD, and GDX. Gringo