Q's for the hourly or even shorter intervals are around 89 and holding. The risk is quite defined with 89 so visible and a long won't be too bad an idea with exit if it doesn't pan out. Gringo
GDX had a nice clean BO above the hinge. Price though has fallen back and testing the mid of the hinge. There are a few possibilities here. Price could bounces around the mid and then resumes up. Price could break down here and have a BO to the downside now that the up has not be successful. Lastly price could just meander and go nowhere. It's a good opportunity to learn. Personally, I tend to avoid hinges a bit and may turn to the hourly to play this out. The hourly is showing intact SL and not much strength in demand for now. Nonetheless as stated earlier, this is a wonderful opportunity to add to our understanding and I'll try to write more about it if my brain stays focused. I tend to like going into seclusion a bit without posting, which tends to give me better returns as compared to when I post in advance. It could be related to emotions getting a bit involved when I feel my anonymous Gringo ID's reputation is at stake! Or it could be an evil eye jealous of my entries that ruins the price movement. Despite all my troubles, the good thing is that reading price has allowed me to not get any large loss. So all that remains is to catch a longer move. Gringo
Gold futures have dropped out of the steeper TC. The price is in proximity to the apex of the hinge. There's another dotted demand line (blue) to show the change in stride, to a bit slower. The drop after the BO from the hinge has been strong. Had it been more gradual we could have given more credence to the continuation upwards after a retracement. This drop could mean a bounce here at the apex or around it and then a resumption of the previous up move. This could also mean that price has not found enough value after the BO and is learning toward testing the lower levels. Play around the apex might be the key for those who are quick on their feet. Gringo
GDX has had quite an interesting movement in price recently. First we'll look at the daily and see where we are and how we got here. The cool thing that there are two hinges in a row and both have had breakouts to the upside with different outcomes. The recent hinge had a nice upside breakout and quite powerful as well. Then out of the blue price started dropping heavily and has been dropping since for three days in a row. There wasn't even much of a stalling at the apex on the hinge either. On top of this weakness the demand line has also been breached decisively. This means that weakness is in the air and if a retracement comes I'll be looking to the downside with both eyes wide open. So now price has had a breakout below the hinge on the daily. The only chance to get short is if price bounces up and maybe gets around the apex to give an entry. This in others words would be the RET. Lets have a look at the hourly as well. The hourly using SLA gave short signal a few days ago but the recent breakout and the up trend kept me from taking an interest in it. I was actually looking for SL break and RET for a long. Fortunately, the SL break never took place, negating any chance of a RET and hence my long entry. At times sticking to basics and not biting when there's nothing to bite does protect money. Sooner or later on the hourly a bounce is going to come. I'll be watching it with intent. The trend change may be in the offing. This is one of those times that an EOD trader has to wait weeks to get and if the chance slips then another long wait ensues. So to not get crazy about missing and then waiting I do play the hourly to keep my mind under control. There's always this wonderful invention called a 'scratch' that solves most troubles instantly. Notice the visible increase in volume on the hourly in the last two hours. We don't know if this might be climactic but there's no harm in keeping it in mind if price starts to slow down and demand shows up and if we're lucky a test? In summary, in the daily interval I am looking only for shorts for now, and in the hourly for the longs. Confusion! Long and short both being eyed at the same time! Gringo
Q's have had a DL break and a RET. There was a partial mini-RET earlier but that's in the past. There's a possibility of short in case price continues down. The bounce around 88.63 is a check against shorting as price didn't continue after the first RET. Price at times does take some time to move around but this will require quick fingers to handle. Q's in the past have punished those who tried to go short. An arrow has been drawn to show a possible path in case of a weakness in price here. I don't much talk about volume but there are times when a bit of attention could yield something worthwhile. Here the volume seems to be increasing as the price drops and decreasing when it rises. It's clearer in the closeup of the daily chart. This tells us that the intensity of trading is greater when price is dropping and lower when it's rising. Price also could keep rising to the swing high and then give an indication as to strength, weakness, or indecision. I feel a bit of trepidation at the thought of a short getting triggered though, but then what would life be without stealing a surreptitious kiss along the path. Lets just hope it doesn't turn into a kiss of death. Gringo
GDX hourly is giving a buy signal. The drop has been sever in the past few days. So there is this chance of some kind of a rebound. Whether this pans out or not is yet to be found, but keep in mind this RET is coming after a V bottom so we might head back down. The purists might rightly say that the SL hasn't been breached properly. It looked to me it was but now it appears it isn't. The price though wasn't dropping and after a small RET turned up. Considering the proximity of price to the SL I took the chance. Now, if price finds it difficult to rise I may choose to just scratch it. So far so good. Gringo
This was a scratch. I guess now we have a better SL breach and potential RET. Doesn't look like we'll get a signal for today.
You're not even going to hold it into tomorrow? I liked the idea for the trade but seems like you didn't really give it a chance. I'm not saying the long side is a sure thing or that it's not a good short but it just seems to me you got to give it a chance. I doubt we even traded outside of .5 an hourly ATR. Risk control is important but you can't be afraid to lose money either.