The up moves to reach the top of the trend line have taken 3-4 weeks in general and have not been steep or substantial in percentage terms. The down moves have been of longer duration and taken 6-8 weeks in general. The percentage drop has been greater and precipitous at times. The bias is to the downside and either another failure closer to the 122 might do the trick, or a weakness beginning around here.
The trend is down. You also have the fact that sellers seem unable to force gdx under the 23 level and haven't been able too for three weeks. I'm bullish for reasons other than price action but if I were only trading price I would be neutral. I guess that's what makes markets.
I wanted to post this last night but then my internet connection fizzled out. This is the Gold futures, April contract. I am not trading it, but it looked like the closest contract with volume, so I used this to look at gold. Looks like a hinge formed around the level of the low in October, and that low looks more or less like the midpoint of the hinge. Today gold tried to "unhinge" but then came back into the hinge. If it continues above the hinge, then the big target would be the October high, and if it turns around and drops below the hinge, then we all know what that probably means
Hello fortydraws. I just recently found your posts as a result of going through all of dbphoenix's posts. I was initially drawn because you were first starting out working part time, like I am, and trading on the days you were off. Your post history shows how dedicated you were to figuring all this out, and I was especially impressed with your updates from last August. I wanted to ask you a couple of questions but I see that I can't PM you. Would you entertain a question or two? Not sure if you can PM me which would then allow me to PM you back?? Thanks for reading.
I would suppose DbPhoenix would not mind if you asked some questions in the original "If you can draw a straight line" thread. I prefer not to get PM's since most of the ones I got in the past were from dumbass trolls. EDIT: I see that the original "If you can draw" thread is closed. Maybe you could ask the questions here in this thread. Don't forget that DbPhoenix is the best person to send your questions to. I'm just a follower. He's the master
Gag me. I assume G wants people to participate, so if the questions have to do with the subject of the thread, they should be asked here. Forty and Gringo are pretty much on the same page, so I should think it would all be good. Edit: BTW, if the questions have to do with learning how to trade while working but aren't necessarily related to gold, etc, then the Ghost thread would be more appropriate since I started it to encourage people to trade longer bar intervals. That didn't fly, but at least it's a better venue.
Ok.. I will. I do hope that I am not a dumbass troll.. LOL... I have a running list in my journal of those people who are because sometimes the names are similar and I want to make sure whose posts I should read or just glance over. 1. My questions are more of a personal nature, hence why I wanted to PM you, but I certainly understand why you turned the PM off so I will ask here. Feel free to answer only some or none at all. I have already PMed dbphoenix and hence why I am working my way through the threads. I feel like I was being torn in different directions, not knowing what to focus on, and seeing your posts have inspired me. I keep watching stocks, then maybe think FOREX is a low cost way to start learning, and then I see these great threads on Futures, and so this is partly why I am torn. First the dumbest question. I just opened up an IB account and I see you trade with IB as well. I'm in Canada and went with IB because the other broker I have up here does not have OCO orders. I had dreams of following the trading of a great thread on here by a guy named "geez" who put on trades and just walked away. He had a win rate of 50%, but used a profit:risk ratio of 2:1 so the statistics of it brought home the bacon. Anyway, I noticed you said in one thread that you use a free platform and you get free data. I am a bit confused because IB will give you free data or charge only $10 a month if you don't do enough trades, but they also state that for CME Futures, floor based prices are $85. Does the free package included real time NQ quotes? I am currently getting a 5 or 10 minute delay which is just fine for learning, but will need real time of course for when I put money on the line. You'd be surprised how difficult this stuff is to google so when I came across your thread it really piqued my interest. My charts don't look anything like yours... are you using the IB data and order execution with another charting platform? (ie. your headers are all different and color schemes don't match, unless maybe you really personalized yours) 2. Since I am still on your posts from August/Sept 2013, this may already be answered, but were you able to quit by end of year as you wanted in your regular job? 3. Another great thread on here was from a guy named Lescor who finally sat down and figured it all out after losing for 8 years. He is doing more of an automated approach it seems, but still manages to pull in 300k to 800k a year. He does have some losing months though.. maybe 10k or 20k loss for the whole month, but then next month he may be up 50k or 60k so it doesn't worry him. He understands the nature of probability. So I wonder if you have a string of loses? I suspect that a hands on approach like watching price has a few bad trades but at the end of the day, those traders who know what they are doing end up positive. So perhaps 2 or 3 bad trades in a row might be just part of the random nature of outcomes, but if you have at least 5 or 6 trades a day then is it possible for every day to end up positive? 4. Are you still trading just the NQ and doing things as you have done them? I read db say somewhere that it gets more complicated then what is presented in the straight line threads, but if you can make $1000 a day doing what you are doing, I figure there is no need to fix something that isn't broken. Hmmm.. I think that's it. I really kind of just wanted to talk to a someone who is real, someone who doesn't have the experience that db has, and to find out if you were having a lucky streak initially and hence if you have had to adapt in some way. Thanks for your time!
Oppps... I messed up! Questions were certainly not thread related. I do love to follow NUGT and DUST coincidentally, love how those ETFs can have 10% or 15% days, but I am hesitant to try to trade them as the volume is quite slow when not during a spike phase so I wonder if the action that sometimes appears to be forming is real since there doesn't seem to be much force behind it.
Obviously off topic but you don't need the floor based quotes for NQ you want to get the electronic ones which are cheap. I don't even remember they might be at most $5.00. That won't just get you quotes for NQ it will get you plenty of other markets as well.
Excellent.. thanks! So if I'm reading this right... https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=marketData&p=mdata The $10 fee, which is waived if you do more than $30 in commissions, should cover those futures as you say which is outlined all the way at the bottom in footnote 4 of the North American Pricing. Now does this also mean that to trade the Russell 2000 (TF), for that I would need the $85 subscription since it trades on ICE and isn't in the list of footnote 4 ?