Over the past 7 1/2 months gold has been forming a neat rising wedge. Monday (Dec 1) Gold Spot hit 406.4, hitting the upper boundary of the wedge (actually penetrated it briefly) thereby fulfilling its technical obligation to complete the wedge formation. Recently the $CRB broke down from a similar formation, falling rapidly from 258.0 to 244.5 in 9 days. Monday the $CRB did a spectacular one-day recovery, climbing 11 full points in one day. Whether the $CRB the is just bouncing within a major reversal or morphing into a broadening formation remains to be seen. If Gold behaves similarly, it could drop within a few days to sub-380.0. There are many technical and fundamental reasons that this is possible. Comex Gold activity has been markedly higher since Gold broke 400.0, without much price movement; this is usually a sign of an impending reversal. Also, net longs has actually diminished on high volume - another bearish indicator. The long/short ratio for Gold contracts is about 3/1 - an unusually high ratio making any short squeeze in the near future unlikely. The absolute long position is 200K+ - also unusually high; the potential for a sell-off cascade is obvious, especially if Gold falls below 400.0 and starts bouncing off 400.0 . Physical demand is badly lagging supply; Gold is trading up here in a speculative balloon. Any hint of a US$ reversal may trigger a sell-off. Just my 2 cents worth. Gold will probably skyrocket now that I've made a fool of myself.