you said it will drop because people who are long need to sell. this implies that it will happen soon...am i correct?
I am saying a SELL off will happen within the next say 4 to 6 weeks. I wouldnt be surprised to see GOLD at $750 I understand that the massive head wins for this plan is the possilble fall in the USD based on FED cutting rates. But if stocks fall, so will gold.
The way I see it, gold completed a bulish flag on the weekly charts and has a projected move to the $950. Why get so hung up on what commercials are doing etc. IMHO when the charts (especially longer term charts) project a move like this, nothing can stop it. Take the long trade, manage your risk and let the market go where they will. Your job as a trader (at least a technical one) is to listen to the market (via charts) and manage your risk.
so now you are changing your reasoning. earlier you were saying people long gold were going to be forced to liquidate their positions because of margin calls and profit taking. now you are saying these margin calls will take a month to 6 weeks. that's some pretty bad logic in my eyes. just say you think gold will sell off at some point in the next month and a half and that you have no real basis for believing that other than the fact that gold is continuing to make highs and that there are no real catalysts you know of that could cause gold to sell off. don't try to come back with the margin call bs because we all know margin calls don't take 6 weeks.