OK then I'll go on record too .... Gold $250 Oil $10-35 Euro = 0.8715 UK bankrupt, several countries euro countries bankrupt. USA revolution, Secession, split up into 6 countries of which I will remain in California. US unemployment @ 30-38%. US $ the mightiest currency in the world - Yen either alongside the $ or stronger. Full blown DEFLATION for the next several years possibly ending in 2014-2016-2018. Poster Tsing Tao will have sold his beer company and bought Sapporo for a song.
IF IF IF...blah blah blah If economy (I assume you link economy to stock markets) drops, then USD will drop right after it like a rope tied to a stone. That is my opinion. What did Voltaire say?
Voltaire's wife left him when he said, "Man with hand in bush is not always gardener" I asked you about gold, not $. No inverse stuff, please. So again, if stocks and economy crash, Gold will skyrocket! You believe this?
Guys here are the numbers ..... you owe me $2000. Corn 96%, Sugar 98%, Oats 96%, Silver 93%, Swiss Franc 95% (usually correlates highly with gold due to massive Swiss Bank reserves) The gold number is gotten indirectly for now thru' correlation with swissy @ 95%. But will check for the actual gold number manana. These mothers are all at a burning feverish pitch. Commitment of Traders reports from the CFTC are also showing a large long position from small and large speculators. The most recent data (for September 14th) shows 87% of the large speculators and 77% of small speculators as long. Such lopsided long positions are also the case for other commodities like Corn, Wheat, Cattle, and Cotton.
To be honest I don't know is the real answer. I like to make money based on what I am seeing, rather than predicting the future to an extent - what would happen if & when markets crash. I know that if & when they do crash I want to have some silver & perhaps some gold stashed away somewhere, just like millions of other people in this world that understand that doom & gloom may be here sooner than later. And THAT is why gold is going up Amigo.
RE: And that is why Gold is going up amigo that's a flawed argument since EVERYTHING is going up - the euro, silver, gold, other commodities, stock markets worldwide, etc. In this thread alone I've seen you try to predict the future quite a few times, just yesterday itself on the 4H chart - albeit a smaller future timespan. So as hard as you might be trying to remain with the HERD for fear of being ostracized (like me), you can't fool me. You've got a streak of larceny aka markettiming in your blood. so, here is the answer based on historical evidence of Gold's behaviour - this evidence is devoid of opinion - its based purely on gold's price. Gold performs well only when the economy is EXPANDING. Therefore, if/when the stock/economy crash begins, Gold will go with it. And take all these billions of people, who are rushing into Gold thinking it is the best thing to have when the world is falling apart, with it to the cleaners. Yes, have some gold and silver in the port - that's a given.
2008 sprint to the top looked like the parabolic top to me. So we might or might not get another. Safest thing to do is TP and/or go short at every 4H trend break.
Gold trading strategy suggestion: TP on Long on 4H close below $1271 and reverse and go Short. (short entry is therefore $17 below current top, but that's the best that can be done - don't want to mess with 1H)