Gold, oil, and the € near a top

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Cutten, Nov 7, 2007.

  1. As of today I am now totally out of my longs in these positions, with the exception of a few 1.47 & 1.48 euro calls expiring on Friday. IMO we are pretty close to a significant top. The gold all-time high is really close, oil is very close to the key $100 level, and the € is very close to the key $1.50 level. There is massive one-way sentiment against the dollar, practically no major investors or speculators are betting on the greenback and those few that are must all be underwater significantly as of today. Today's price action is also symptomatic of capitulation at new all-time dollar lows. Finally, we have the Chinese central bank puking its gigantic dollar holdings after losing money on them for years. Whenever a Central Bank finally pukes out a massive multi-year loser, you simply have to consider going the other direction.

    People might ask what is the potential catalyst for a dollar rally. Well, those same people are often talking about how subprime & housing is going to get worse, assuming this is bearish for the dollar. But if in fact housing really melts down and affects the rest of the economy, then IMO this is likely to cause massive risk-aversion and subsequent repatriation of capital from abroad (where the assets are, for the most part, more risky). We saw a premonition of this is August, with the dollar spiking and risk-assets getting creamed.

    There's no immediate timing signal yet, but I am placing some initial options bets on a dollar rally. I'll increase size once the market appears to put in a reversal, up to a full bet once the market movement confirms my view. I think we could see $1.35 and maybe even $1.30 within the next 4-6 months.
     
  2. Just when you're about to call the top..whoops it goes higher.

    The top isnt here .

    When people stop calling for the top, oil and gold will finally fall.
     
  3. gobar

    gobar

    what do u think about the gold price. I bought some gold when it was @ 670.

    I want to keep gold for the long run but i can take some profit and buy more @ cheaper price. whats ur target for Gold by the end of the year
     
  4. agreed.
     
  5. if what you are saying is true, the market should rally soon?

    ...does anyone think this would be a good dip to buy some calls on ETFs? or is it better to wait for the market to fall more?
     
  6. Buy Calls on EWX and FXI with 2 month expiration and strike price at 82 and 220 repsectively.
     
  7. gobar

    gobar

    EWX :confused: or

    EWZ
     
  8. My bad. EWZ.

    Strike price @ 86-89 or so
     
  9. Stock_Turder was wildly bullish on FXI when it was trading 215.

    A few days later it's at 190.

    He is a troll with a $3000 dollar Ameritrade account.

    Put him on ignore so you're not subjected to his relentless drivel.
     
  10. FXI opened almost 10% down 3 days ago. if u were holding options, u probably lost almost everything overnight. and if BIDU crashes , FXI would probably go down more, then it might be okay to buy FXI.
     
    #10     Nov 7, 2007