A bear case for gold is an early exit from stimulative policies by major central banks, the problem is if the economies dont take that well, they could be forced to ease monetary policy later, so it would create a correction. The big enemy of gold is 'Great Moderation' type periods, so if there there isn't a New Normal and everything will be okay economically and in the markets, you want to be shorting gold against commodity benchmarks
Gold's strength these last months and it's decoupling from the liquidity trade has been quite amazing really. The Dow Jones is up 1% and closes 1% down yet gold doesnt even blink at all. I am trying to see if it has decoupled from currencies, stockmarkets and liquidity where it is tied to today but I wouldnt exacly be able to point it out.
If the current bear market continues into a 2008 style crash I won't be surprised to see gold slapped down into the low 900s or even the 800s. This is assuming that, as in 2008, people dump gold along with every other asset for the "safe haven" of Treasuries. If that happens I'll regard it as a buying opportunity, because I still think the long term trend is up. I see no exit for the fiat currencies other than severe debasement. OTOH, I also won't be surprised if $1000 proves to be a long term floor for gold. More people are becoming aware of the insupportable debt incurred by Japan, the United States, and now the Euro zone. And so far a lot more people talk about gold than actually own the stuff. At any investor's conference ask the attendees to raise their hands if they own gold bullion. I'll bet that fewer than 10% will put their hands up. The real run up in gold will happen when 50% of the population with savings decide they'd better own some gold. If you're looking for a bearish gold commentator, well, Kitco's Jon Nadler is generally more than willing to throw some cold water on that site's usual stable of perma-bulls.
Ya! I agree that! Currency is basic platform of the cpital game. If Euro/US goverments keep print money,the platform will be raised.
No offense but a person with a high school level economics understanding can make this claim, again I ask myself why only $1200 then? Why havent we shot up as the smart money sees the writing on the wall and lifts it up so fast leaving the average schlub no opportunity to buy it for a reasonable price. Every other market seems to move so much faster than anyone can keep up with
It's because central banks, governments and investment banks worldwide have a vested interest in keeping the price of gold under control and because of that they are granted to step in and put downward pressure on the price of gold. But, as the price of gold clearly has shown these last years, they can have influence but no control over it and as we go forward logic would dictate them to at some point in time simply back down as cost would not be in check with results anymore. You might think not again this lunatic fringing again, fair enough, but think about it. In every 10K small coast town around the world you know real estate agents are clinging together to set prices and not cut each other in the flesh. Which works out to their benefit untill....economic reality sets in and all buyers dry up leaving their little sheme in shatters. The true conspiracy would be to assume no resources at all would be deployed towards the goal of retaining actractivity of paper currencies, worldwide the medium of choice and the blood of life for governments and the banking community.