Gold Long for a Swing?

I'd like to see a hammer on the daily before I get bullish. Yeah there's no selling climax I can see. But still being cautious after a month straight of selling. Sort of reluctantly on the short side this am. Bought it back too soon.

 

I hear ya brother, muuuuch easier to trade those slightly illiquid futures - That's where the opportunity is if you can stand a little unsheltered risk

Man I would not buy this slow motion train wreck, needs a high speed crash to be worthwhile on long side

 

Be careful, it is is late in the business cycle. A failed hammer reversal pattern will literally nail you. It could precede the biggest down day for the season/cycle. I have done a number of them myself on vol etfs. Quite exciting, very rewarding...until it isn't.

 

A failed hammer reversal pattern will literally nail you.

Well played Sir, well played!

 

Well I'm looking for some sort of reversal pattern followed by a retest. Obviously we aren't there. I'd sell the first retracement but its hard to quantify. We may just flatten out without a spike down but I doubt it. It's kinda like looking at seed catalogs in February. Vegetable porn.--Swimr

 

I would agree if we were talking equities--it is late in the business cycle. But gold is a separate asset, unless I'm missing something. Enlighten us if you would.Good pun BTW.

 

Oops. I was confusing my threads. My business cycle warning was for equities.

Based on our private chat, I mentioned the strong negative correlation between ES and GC leading up to Dec.

Would I enter shorts on GC on an ES hammer? Probably, though I won't buy the ES hammer. Nothing assures me the risk assumed by the hammer trade will muscle through the upward congestion in the 2100 area.

My sense of magnitude might be off since I express equities buy the dip trade via vol etfs. But, the trade is very much related. Anyway, back on topic. I want to hear from our futures options traders.

One could play smaller magnitude moves with size but the RR will be quite skewed.

 

3yr chart.

 

Anyone that is freshly bearish is a late player but probably still not in the wrong...

 

I am still short Gold till it gets to at least 903.9 before I can consider getting out and reversing, this will be 75% of nine year high/low retracement. It could be this week or five years from now, I stay short and do rollovers, and in between I do credit spreads and when it goes up high enough, I short more gold futures.