I don't think a lot of folks are bearish on gold to begin with. Secondly just because you are bearish doesn't mean you are short . The demise of the dollar is a fantasy IMO. Yes the dollar will and should go lower but a real currnecy crisis as emerging countries have seen ... I very much doubt it will happen. Real estate up because of dollar down? Real estate is up everywhere! In Europe too. One of the thing people underestimate is the resiliency of the US as an economic superpower. There really is something different about the US that no other country, civilization or economy can match. The entrepreneurial culture will always be there and attract capital. If the fundamental values of freedom remain and the world scientific elite continue to move to America, the US should continue to dominate and attract foreign money. The dollar then will remain the reserve currency of the world. There will be scares along the way , it's not the first time Americans think the US is being supplanted by another nation .
In times of true financial crisis, like war or revolution, Gold isnt worth anything. Anyone who went through those problems in Eastern Europe will tell you just that. What matters is food, water, shelter, clothing, medical supplies & firearms. During WWII, bread and clothes were the actual currency not gold coins. You think anyone is gonna honor your Gold futures contracts if the dollar goes? Get real. Unless you're holding physical gold in small denominations, not much you're gonna be able to do. Even then, who do you think will have the real bargaining power, the guy selling you the food or you with the Gold ingots.
The present global economic picture is so complicated that I dont think the past can be used to judge whats going on, or predict whats going to happen.
And you think that if Gold ingots are worthless that anyone is going to honor grain contracts? By that time everything will have gone to shit. I think the main gist of the thread is that if the US economy doesn't collapse completely then those gold contracts can be pretty valuable (Not that I'm a gold bug...). -Neo
Reread what I said about what truly matters. I never mentioned any financial instruments, and grain contracts are financial instruments. If the US economy doesnt collapse, then more than just gold contracts can be valuable. Look at steel, copper, oil and coal over the last 5 years. I would rather be invested in a real commodity with real practical industrial use.
ET is essentially composed of three types of people: 1. The "Housing-is-doomed-because-of-Greenspan", "Fiat-currency-Bush-is-a-monkey", "End-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-so-buy-gold-until-you-explode", long oil, perma-bears... 2. The "what bubble?", "US-has-weathered-many-tough-times", "to-the-moon-baby!", "goldbugs-are-a-laugh", "GOOG-to-1000", bulls. 3. Comedy relief morons like ZZZZZZzzzz, SkaLpZ, etc. There are slightly more rare hybrids of the first two out there, but every thread lately is pretty much a fight between the two extreme types, or a jackass followup post by one of those in #3.
why is silver price not high compared to gold ? in my mind it should have hit $10.00 this month ( no position - but long some pre 1965 us coins )