big time... gold is dead... and as soon as china coughs over its staggering npls and attempts to firesale its massive stocks of empty buildings, so much for construction... the rest of metals follows...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html "The margin for copper will be raised to $25,000, a 72 percent rise from $14,575 for each 25 metric-ton lot of the metal" lol. thats approaching 30%
gold went mini-parabolic. the big question is now: Is the parabolic move over or is this a "natural reaction" in Jesse Livermore's term's? I'll leave it you your learned discretion to determine if at this stage you want to hop onbaord of a parabolic move. Maria
Of course an option model is not going to be perfect in predicting the future distribution of prices. That's why they call it a model. But if one wants a ballpark, I'd go with implied volatility of the options over historical.
Buy strangles and get paid, gold will make a big move either continuing it's speculative move up or it will sharply correct, this is almost certain.
Not that anyone cares, nor should they care, but I closed out my June gold short (sold on Friday) and went long. If gold breaks 685, I am back short. If that happens, then the real correction may begin.
*Shrugs* I feel queasy now , perhaps because I wanted to pick a top but it was only short term and had to call a bottom only 3-4% later. Gold's trend is too strong...... EDIT: A break above 720 would be confirming the bull, as the that is the right shoulder on the intraday H&S.....