GOLD has topped !

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by EmAy, Aug 10, 2006.

  1. If you guys think gold is dead you are going to be sadly mistaken, and VERY SAD if you are short.

    Tell me something is the USD gonna all of a sudden rally for some reason while when we all know helicopter Hanky Panky can not stop printing money because when he does everything Americans know about living the good life will be out the window. I don't trust any of those guys and the only real money is gold and if you do not have a core position in gold you may be in serious trouble.

    The only reason the dollar is not heading lower is because right now people are starting to wake up to the fact that money printing and higher rates go hand in hand. Everyone has been shorting the dollar and a lot people now see rates stop and assume printing will stop and tightning of the money supply will follow. Well inflation numbers do not tell the story and if you think a 5% yield on the 10 year is gonna pay you anything you are crazy. Investing in the 10Y is losing you money each and every day.

    So as people now convert assets to cash which is causing the dollar to pop here gold will weaken. But as the economy slow Ben will ignite the press again but be hard pressed to raise rates as this will cause a much more severe recession than the one we are heading in to, gold will have it's biggest gains. I think we have a little bit more weakness and as gold is now also coming into its seasonal strength, i will continue to buy in fact buying a little bit today.

    I am not going to try to enter at exact prices as I have learned in PM it is too hard but I am buying longer dates so no big deal. This time next year I would be willing to bet we have exceeded all time highs and have come back off those highs into the 750-850 range.

    No reason in the world to sell gold and no reason to buy stocks bonds or real estate. Energy, PM, and Commodities have been the best performer and although I stil like like commodities, I'll take the cash and run, and when i say cash I mean gold.

    Continue make money trading hold a core position in gold and all will be good.

    Check back in a year we will see.

    Good thread too guys,

    #31     Aug 12, 2006
  2. stocon


    A buy signal:cool:
    #32     Aug 12, 2006
  3. To go-ld long, again you shall,
    Auspicious day this Monday the 14th.
    On this eighth month
    The 13th it cannot be.
    Trading session in New York,
    Two large shoulders and a small head
    The signal it will be.
    Patiently you must wait.
    New beginnings start at 33
    Again to fight with 666.

    #33     Aug 12, 2006
  4. I agree with millenium, the downside seems much more limited to the upside, we probably chop around for a bit and stop ejay out and ultimately make another wave down to wash the weak longs. Long term I am bullish, I just rode up this recent wave and banked in on a 30% gain so I dont want to get to greedy. Just have a small position on now for a lotto.
    #34     Aug 12, 2006
  5. while you gents have been trying to pick tops and bottoms

    I have been doing quite nicely

    the metals in between with all the VOL.

    hopefully this will continue although I see the writing on the wall

    for some of what I do in the months ahead and will have to make adjustments

    #35     Aug 12, 2006
  6. by the way ... if fridays lows do not hold next week

    maybe I will join the "bears" for a small position
    while still trading around it

    #36     Aug 12, 2006
  7. Gold is in a bear market IMHO.
    #37     Aug 12, 2006
  8. EmAy


    Thank God, that most of u guys are bullish on GOLD.

    Thats what a new bearmarket needs, people who think this hysteria will last and last and last....

    thank u guys...i m looking forward to add to my shortposition !
    #38     Aug 12, 2006
  9. OK, I'll toss in a fundamental argument, even though I am a day trader.

    What happens if we go into a global recession, which I believe is quite possible. Bye bye commodities. To make matters worse, the big funds will dump all at the same time. Copper, gold, even sugar could get absolutely destroyed.

    I think both sides have BIG potential.
    #39     Aug 12, 2006
  10. stocon


    But they won't allow it and will print money, fiat currency and all dat, I think gold is diff than oil or copper which would decline but they will still have more value than the dollar, it's the debt, loose money and chaos that will drive gold not a slow dn, at some point a currency is gonna implode and gold will blast off, then again bottle water looks good and that india fund oughta bounce pretty good next week

    #40     Aug 12, 2006