One other indicator you did not mention is that the net COT commercial index for gold and silver has been getting progressively more short for the last 6 months, suggesting a coming temporary top. I can't wait for a significant pullback in gold and silver, so I can buy more. All countries seem to be rushing to devalue their currencies and people are losing faith in paper money. Thus, the interest in gold and silver.
You don't get it how it works. They buy scrap gold at absurd discounts, smelt it into bars acceptable by CME standards and sell futs with intent to deliver. Regardless, why fight the trend. Gold and especially silver have been suppressed by the futures shorts.
I get how it works just fine, thanks. And the recent lack of advertising and hype from these businesses compared to the levels of advertising and hype when gold was sub-1000 is an additional contrarian indicator, suggesting that the cash for gold outfits are currently scaling back on their purchasing. I agree that the trend should not be fought, and the long term trend has been up. But a lot of indicators are now starting to show divergences and suggest that a near term top for gold may be coming. So I've got my trailing stops in place. If it wants to "melt up" in a final bubble move, fine by me. But everything I'm seeing tells me this is an unsustainable move, and I'm definitely in a more cautious mode from this point forward.
today i was on the elevator and some china guy was telling a china woman that the US dollar is going to get depreciate more and more and so gold is a good buy and i was thinking wtf even the chinese commoner knows that
Yep, the contrarian flags are getting bigger and bigger. In fact, everyone is so bearish on the Dollar that I've started shorting the EUR/USD futures.
You said that the Cash4Gold guys are sellers now instead of buyers. You're wrong, they have always been buyers & re-sellers. As for the recent lack of advertising, you are very mistaken. More of these shops are opening up by the week. The "gold parties" are being advertised in local papers as well as Cash4Gold copycats. My guess is that these new shops are middlemen for Cash4Gold as they need the use of the refinery. The public are sellers not buyers of gold. What do you think that means, hmm? What ton of indicators? Name one. Silver lagging gold? You do realize that silver has lagged gold for years. It took a much bigger dive during the selloff but also made a much better move up allowing greater gains. (wish i bought up more bullion when it was sub $10) Do you even realize that gold is moving up in small increments with pullbacks in a steady appreciation? It's not like it's flying $100/ounce a day. What is so unsustainable about the move? Gold goes through significant sideways periods before making any moves. I don't know what you're looking at, but you're obviously not seeing the rapid money supply growth of USD, as well as significant growth of other fiat currencies.