Gold & Elliot Wave Count

I have been charting Gold with Elliot wave and found it to be really helpful. I think we are currently in wave 5. According to this theory, wave 5 should equal wave 1, which moved $100. If true my upside target for gold is 1265.00.

I use EW and candlestick to forecast and create projections.
my take is therefore today sell off is profit taking and not a bearish reversal

 

Thanks for your figure!

When the wave 5 is finish,will the gold's price go down?

 

Wave five is the last of the inpluse phase. After that you get a corrective phase, waves AB & C ... it sholud go down after completion of wave 5

 

Personally, I find your reasoning every bit as naive as every other Elliott wave prognosticator who came on this board. The predictions look pretty much like tea leaf readers. Thinking, interpreting, and if it accidentally is right, pointing to your successes while hoping they ignore the many inaccurate ones.

 

I truly respect your opinion. I have been a market technician for the better part of twenty five years. I wrote my first book in 1994, Trading Applications of Japanese Candlestick Charting (Wiley Finance).

I have been using Elliot wave in conjunction with Candlestick patterns and Fibonacci Retracement theory for the better part of 15 years. I stand by my record. On May 17th I published a guest blog for ino.com. In it I explained in detail my take on gold and Elliot wave. Please read it:

http://club.ino.com/trading/2010/05/a-new-technical-triad-and-gold/

If you still think my opinion are “naïve” then so be it. BTW I called the top of wave 3 to be at 1246, this was when gold was trading at 1200.

You can email me and I will give you a link to my track record. I guess I’m a very lucky trader.

Again I respect you opinion, and wish you the best. Please research the link I sent you, and post your response

 

How do you differentiate between the wave counts without jumping perspectives? It appears to me that alot of Elliot Wave practitioners jump to an other perspective from which they count the wave formation in order to make it fit a pre-established position. In other words, how do you differentiate objectively between the waves?

 

I took me the better part of ten years to get elliot wave. In EW a little knowledge is trouble. There are specific Rules that must be followed for a correct wave count. There is no flexabilty in that

Elliot Wave followers will often disagree on the wave count. I think there are many practitioners that incorrectly label waves.
that being said I agree many using EW try "cut the image to fit the frame". i think thats why so many people have issues with EW

The reason for this post on EW and gold was it seemed VERY clear that in this instance i could see a very clear objective wave count. This is not always the case.

I have detailed my observation in guest blog i did for ino.com on may 17th.

http://club.ino.com/trading/2010/05/a-new-technical-triad-and-gold/

I have found in my studies that by adding them to Candlestick pattern analysis they offer me addition insight. Both Fibonacci retracement and candlestick patterns offer much less to the eye of interpretation. They are both much more hard coded in terms of the rules they follow.

I still believe there is a lot of relevance to the idea that market move in waves or cycles. If they did not, pattern theory would have no relevance, and there would be no such thing as a head and shoulders formation.

But that is another topic all together

 

I use to be like CoreForex and truly believed in Elliottwave, but even after many years of trying to master it. I thought I was just too stupid to understand and effectively use it. During some other research, I finally realized that it was not me, the subject is far too subjective.

It is interesting to note that Babson, Andrews and others argued with Elliott as to his "waves", counts and his repeatedly ignoring swings in his count

Mr. CoreForex, with all due respect, I looked at your images as you pointed us too and have annotated them and attached them to this post. IF you please, explain the subjective labeling, why they are different beyond the time element and why the missed swings?

 

Waves can be composed of sub waves. Also called a zig zag
From the EW centers lessons:

A single zigzag in a bull market is a simple three-wave declining pattern labeled A-B-C. The subwave sequence is 5-3-5, and the top of wave B is noticeably lower than the start of wave A






With all due respect, I know that a EW wave count is not perfect.

I understand that different analyists will do a differnt wave count

however i have found EW to be a benifit is FORECASTING future events ... anyone can be a arm chair quaterback after the fact ... I have projected a top at 1265 ... we will see ....