Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by oldtime, Mar 8, 2013.

  1. my anecdotal rule of thumb

    when dx hits 83 ob

    it's a good time to buy gold

    and it was up there this morning
  2. problem is, none of the gold bugs pay any attention to the other side

    78 and it's a good time to sell gold
  3. clacy


    Even if a gold bug want to keep their gold, this could be a good rebalance point to add to the position or take profits.
  4. rockn


    Interesting, the dollar definitely seems to be rolling over at 83 area, and gold was turning higher, but now also gold seems to be churning at 1610 level. will be interesting to see if dollar keeps heading lower and gold higher, or gold will roll over too here.
  5. that morning the DX hit 83, gold was at 1575
  6. The gold mining stocks seem like they have under performed in comparison to the actual metal. I don't trade stocks short term but I bought some miners yesterday to hold a few years.

    Looks like people have been going long actual gold and shorting or selling their positions in miners the past few years.

    GDX vs GC chart attached
  7. the problem with miners is, you also have stock specific company risk. Gold can be going up, but the company can have labor problems or making unprofitable aquisitions.

    for me personally, I just sold all my GLD. Two reasons, it is non performing and I need a little more income, and secondly, I think all the weakness in the dollar is already priced in.

    to me, just a guess, DX 83 is more likely to be taken out than DX78

    I'm dollar neutral in my forex account. I just don't want to bet on a weaker dollar at this time. and in my opinion, USD needs to go down for GC to go up.

    those going long the physical will never sell
    they ride it up and they ride it down
    they buy but they never sell
    the only way to get it out of their cold dead hands is when they die and their heirs sell it to pay off their credit cards
    but then again, those goldbugs are not getting any younger

    miners participate in any good stock market rally, some are in the S&P 500 index and get bought along with everything else

    personally, I wouldn't buy a miner unless I paid a professional to analyse it for me. (and those analysts don't come cheap.)

    so the old anecdote, DX high buy gold, has broken down for me

    but sooner or later all the chickens will come home to roost. the only way out of this mess is to devalue the dollar, like the man said, "I'm never wrong, but often early."
  8. Yeah I get what your saying about company risk, bought a basket of em for some diversity.

    I'm one of them gold nut cases btw, been holding physical silver since 13 and gold since circa 950

    I'm 25 and plan to just use the physical as a "just in case shit hit the fan " trade, preservation of wealth, inflation hedge , and who knows maybe I get lucky during a fiat currency reset.

    What are you going to buy with your new Cash? Or do you want to be in cash for a while?
  9. yes, that's the question, I'm very busy moving money around, and I suppose at some point I need to decide if I want to add anymore to my trading account. I hate to mess with something that has been working so well. Most likely I will spread it between stocks and bonds. Hard to do since I sold a lot of bonds at 126 and I have a very low average price in my stocks. But if I was young and had physical I would do just like you, put it away and don't think about it. But no, I have too much cash and it is just sitting there losing money everyday. It's the only sure thing in my life. I know everyday I will lose money on my cash. Gotta get moving, and here we are at the worst possible time to make a move.