Gold/Dow 1:1 ratio; what say you?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stephan31, Apr 28, 2011.

  1. Hola,

    I found this 'pmsurfer' blog.

    He writes about long-term Precious Metal cycles and the Dow historically.

    He also dogs out the dollar; which is popular nowadays.

    He is NOT selling anything and seems well spoken.

    I wasn't trading back around 1980 when we had the last blowoff in precious metals.

    Is this considered contrarian investing after a 9 year bull market in precious metals?



    When the situation changes, I do--what do you do?
  2. Personally I think Gold will still go up higher and will most likely disobey the cycles. The primary reasons are the following:

    a.) Gold is not very abundant. Population is increasing so as the demand for gold in jewelry, electronics, etc.

    b.) Gold is attracting more investors unlike before, its because today with the volatile market situation and high levels of uncertainty. More and more investors are willing to put money on gold to protect their assets from inflation, etc. This drives the price of Gold higher.

    c.) Since investors are using Gold to protect their investment, they hold it for a very long time. Since there is no panic selling scenario (unlike in Futures and stock markets), the price of Gold will continue to go up.
  3. gold will be 10,000 an ounce by the eoy.

    there, no need to discuss it any further.

    and when you go to cash it in for food, they will hit you over the head and take it from you, making it a 100% loss no matter what your cost basis.

    thus, and therefore, sell gold NOW. save yourself the head bashing.

    have a Shat.
  4. Whoa :eek:


    8 posts in almost 12 years!
  5. it will happen, 1:1 is bound to happen.

    i believe both the dow and gold will reach the same point at 5000.
  6. What up cppp?

    My story is that several of my last few usernames {NonBreedBoy#2, NonBreedBoy#3, etc...} have somehow been banned or oh hell; I don't know.

    So, I used one of my old usernames from over a decade ago to begin posting again.

    I use profanity alot in casual post topics; and am usually heavily drinking when engaged in back and forth conversations on topics that I have a strong opinion about.

    So; now I have an old username and I'll use this one and keep my vitriol to a low roar--or if/when the next time I am heavily medicated on the drug of my choice--I'll take a pass on elite trader


  7. I was just thinking; on that dude's blog in my original post--he does ALOT of reading, researching, and says don't be lazy.

    Doing all that research on junior miners and stuff looks like quite a bit of work to find those 'nuggets' of gold; literally!

    He writes about late nights studying 'reports' from the small companies he is stalking and drinking beers--how many late nights many of us have done the same with our charts.

    Just for the hell of it--I wonder if any people who live in areas of the U.S. where precious metals have been mined--if they are literally out there now panning for gold now that it is over $1,500 an ounce.

    When I was younger I had the fantasy of going to an old abandoned mine and putting in a day's work listening to some music and taking my nugget to a general store and purchasing goods; like you see on the old westerns.

    So silver probably has to hit $50 and take it out a bit higher for the big test of all-time highs.

    Isn't it funny how when we look at weekly/monthly charts of historical markets and moves that it looks so easy in hindsight to see old resistance and support points and the MONSTER bounces off of those areas; but in real time with REAL money and hyper-emotionality of Silver everything seems different?

    I was early and sold my silver ounces (physical) for $43 last week.


  8. Elder000


    Ha ha ha like a ghost you just found out has been living in your house for 20 years. :)

    About Gold Dow Ratio

    You can make money in gold if you buy up gold futures with reasonable leverage. But if you are holding physical gold you will preserve your money not make money which is also a good thing
  9. Elder and anyone else,

    What about another 200%+ in gold to get to a potential 1:1 Dow ratio?

    I'll play devil's advocate 'cause I like how that pimpin' demon thinks.

    Here goes.

    If we are in a 17 year 'trading range cycle' for the dow/sp (forget the nasdaq100--that is a different beast); this means we are ranging in the sp500 from 1550 down to 650 ish and the dow ranging from 14.5K down to 6.5K

    Now, although the world will end in 2012 (lol) that means we have about 6.5 years until 2017 and let us say that the dow hits a low of 4.5K; that means that gold has to advance roughly another 200%+ higher.

    Gold has been rising since 2002 and is in a 9year bull run and has risen roughly 625%+.

    That means gold has to rise 2,250% from where it was trading @$200 an ounce in 2002.

    Did Gold:Dow ratio hit 1:1 in late 1979 and/or early 1980?

    That's only 30 years--just 1.5 generations ago.



    p.s. I have alot of interest in these discussions (reason I brought up the blog I mentioned in my original post).

    Historic opportunities and I this will probably be the big move in metals for my generation (only have maybe 15 more years to trade actively); then I'll drink and chill my final few years of retirement.
  10. S2007S


    Peter Schiff on Gold/Dow 1:1 ratio from May 11th, 2010


    "Our Economy, Our economy is not growing our economy is a disaster were printing money and spending it, our debt is growing much faster than our gdp, all were doing is growing the government buying more stuff"

    Peter Schiff, listen to him he is the one that is telling you how it is, he is warning everyone about what is happening, everyone laughed at him when he predicted the collapse in the housing market and now he continues to pound the table and tell everyone that whats going on now with huge amounts of spending and debt will lead to another downfall in the economy.....

    He mentions gold/dow ratio 1:1 and said it will happen eventually, he said it happened twice once in 1929 and again in 1980!!!

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    #10     Apr 29, 2011