gold daytrading

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by rodden, Nov 21, 2003.

  1. rodden


    Thought it would be nice to open a thread for short-term gold traders.

    ABX forswore forward selling this morning. So much for the theory that there's a zillion tons of producers' gold waiting at 400.00.

    That leaves only one major impediment to short-term bullishness for this commodity/currency - the hugely overextended speculative long position. If a quick correction can clean that up the ongoing currencies mess should drive gold higher.

    UNLESS...the central banks want to sit on gold a little longer in order to maintain some semblance of currencies credibility.

    Gold jumped this morning on ABX's announcement, but is currently flatish. If gold doesn't close stronger today we may see a shake-out next week.

    Just my humble speculations, of course.
  2. rodden


    Gold firming up at midday. This might be just the weekend-Al Qaeda effect.

    Gold equities a little weak - probably due to strong competition from COMP.
  3. rodden


    Gold closed +2.80. USD pretty flat. Not a really impressive day, given the weekend-IRAQ/Al Qaeda factor.

    Looks like the equites markets have a pent-up urge to go up.

    If the weekend is quiet, gold and Composite stocks may diverge Monday.
  4. Banjo


    What instruments,symbols are you trading?
  5. rodden


    Strictly equities. PDG in particular because it's a good mover and is very reactive to the bullion price. Also, it's fundamentally sound. I"m in and out every day. Doing OK with it, even though I'm an independent and pay full commissions.

    Also, on the side, I trade chunks of Canadian penny golds. They're a little tricky though. They can tie you up for long periods, but as long as management is long and has a good track record (as promoters), they tend to pay off well.

    e.g. JON (Toronto) went from .06 to .60 recently. It's a bag of crap, but has a good promoter who is (was?) long 8,000,000 s/s.

    I'm not a long-term player though; with the exception of the pennies, I seldom hold a position more than 2 days.

    I'm not a gold bug - I trade the gold majors both ways; I also trade INTC, TXN, CSCO, IBM, etc. but find these move less logically than the golds (too many day traders skewing the action).

    Finally - and most important - I don't like to reccommend plays; I would just like to get feedback from others to get a feel for the short-term dynamics.
  6. Banjo


    Thanks, haven't played golds in a long time.
  7. the mini gold ( occasionally mini silver)

    made my profits today doing arb between the big contract
    and mini pre market as well as buying into the fake intraday
    dip and selling out on the rally back up

    latter strategy was risky I guess , but I felt ok as I was playing
    with the house money today
  8. How did you know that "dip" a drop from 397 to 392 was 'fake"? Daytrading Gold looks like crapshoot to me .
  9. COMEX gold rose Friday after
    Barrick Gold Corp., one of the most active hedgers, said it was
    no longer committed to selling the metal forward to protect future
    production from falling prices. The news underscored that
    producers were more inclined to avoid hedging than to lock in
    prices for reserves at the highest levels in almost eight years.

    "It's pretty big news and I think it took the market a little by
    surprise this morning," said Bernard Hunter, a director at
    bullion dealer ScotiaMocatta in Toronto.

    "Later on there was some confusion about whether it was
    confirmed or just a rumor. Maybe that contributed to taking
    some of the sting out," he said.

    Next week could be very volatile or deathly quiet. Options
    expire Monday on the COMEX and in London cash
    markets, and positions must be rolled over before
    December delivery notices start on Wednesday, ahead
    of a four-day U.S. holiday weekend.
  10. rodden


    Given the monster speculative long position, do you anticipate any particular negative/positive effect on options expiry? Do you think many contracts will be called for delivery, given that real physical buyers are pretty scarce at this price level?

    IMF announced Thursday that it will definitely be selling off some of its gold to pay off African debts.
    US dollar chart looks set for a rebound.
    Equity markets looked strong for a Friday, given Iraq/Al Qaeda.


    ABX announcement would seem to leave only Central Banks and profit-taking specs to sell @ 400.00+ .
    Approaching long weekend should stimulate nervousness.

    How do you add it up for Monday?
    #10     Nov 22, 2003