Gold coin sentiment indicator

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by marketbarometer, Feb 1, 2007.

  1. Its been common knowledge among smart money that when you see gold coins being sold on television then you know the Gold Rush is over.

    Last week, I saw the "Fast Five" on CNBC stating that you should hit the streets and buy gold coins from some sidewalk shops in New York City. They even had a few samples they had purchased from the street vendors.

    On Bloomberg radio, there was a money manager that stated the oil producing countries should turn all their cash into gold immediately. This is what I hear actually almost everyday now as if a nuclear bomb was going to hit the nation and we need to be in gold right now.

    The 2004 and 2005 gold charts look healthy, however, the 2006 chart looks unhealthy with lots of chop indicating to me that we might see the price drop at some point in the future.

    I believe that when everyone starts to look at one investment vehicle then the easy money has already been made. The end of the 2000 tech bubble was when we saw a brokerage commercial with a tow truck driver stating that he made enough to buy an island. The end of the real estate market came with many how to invest in real estate seminars and commercials. So I believe the end of the gold market has come with the gold coins commerical and should suddenly pull back much like oil.

    What do you think? Should I go out to the street vendors and buy up the gold coins or should I stay with my opinion on this issue?

  2. Youd would be a fool not to buy all comes down to price. If you buy it can't lose.
  3. sprstpd


    You may be right, but don't you need some hysterical price move upwards to confirm that it is at the end of its move? Personally, I don't see gold being hyped the way internut stocks were during the bubble.
  4. Your reactions to my short essay are telling. You guys didnt give me a list of fundamentals as to why I should buy gold right now. Instead, you told me that I was a fool for not buying it and questioned my reasoning stating that this cant even compare to the tech bubble.

    If I had posted this on here in 2004 and 2005, I probably would have received some informed responses spelling out reasoning as to why I should buy it. Now I receive emotional unreasoned responses stating that I should get in right now or I am a fool.

    Hmmmmmm....this almost sounds like the real estate story. When housing prices were at the top, everyone and their brother was approaching me telling me that I just had to buy a property, any property, it didnt matter. I would be a fool if I didnt buy a property.
  5. There has been ads for gold coins on TV for the last 25 years.
  6. AaronCapps

    AaronCapps Global Futures

    There are several Precious Metals dealers that have been advertising on the TV for many many years. Monex is the main one i know of. They have been in business selling financed gold and gold coins for generations.
  7. AaronCapps

    AaronCapps Global Futures

    isn't this what ed seykota does, bases his trades off of public sentiment, either with it or against it.
  8. AK100


    Forget about contrary indicators they are only useful when the crowd/public get involved.

    And right now Gold is not even on their radar. The only buyers of gold have been the gold bugs (but that's all they do) and forward looking long term investors looking for some insurance, putting 5% of their assets into the metal etc.

    Gold has been in a multi year bull market and is one of the best performing assets over the last several years. It's unwise to try and bet against these long term trends because their nature is often very tenacious.

    My advice, go long or do nothing. But that's advice for long term investors only. As for all you short term monkeys - who knows where it's going.....
  9. zdreg


  10. A true contrarian is aware the end is nigh but does not buy or sell blindly. They wait for the turn.

    Mid 06 was frothy but Gold has been consolidating since then. I say we go higher. Certainly not a lock but a hypothesis.

    Good trading to you!
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    #10     Feb 1, 2007