Gold chart analysis

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Cam12, Jan 20, 2025.

  1. Cam12

    Cam12

    Wed

    4hr
    upload_2025-1-29_11-19-51.png

    1hr
    upload_2025-1-29_11-20-3.png

    What I'm seeing:
    The PA becomes a bit messy with many levels on a 1hr.
    I'll need to wait for more clearly defined levels before taking any trades above 2735

    What I'm looking for:
    1. Price to come back to support around 2725-2735 and show me a reversal pattern
     
    #21     Jan 28, 2025
  2. Cam12

    Cam12

    That's not the worst idea in the world seeing how things have been going. I've had a similar idea for XAUAAUD (up 50% last year). On a Daily chart its a climactic bull run that seems to never end. Meanwhile I'm over here taking some small wins and losses trading the noise on the 5min or 15min.


    Hopefully a nice surprise interest rate change tomorrow can shake some things loose


    Ok I'm with you now, thanks for explaining.
     
    #22     Jan 28, 2025
  3. Cam12

    Cam12

    Thursday

    Daily
    upload_2025-1-30_11-12-11.png

    4hr
    upload_2025-1-30_11-12-32.png

    1hr
    upload_2025-1-30_11-12-40.png

    What I am seeing:
    The mkt has gone into a messy triangle just below ATHs on the Daily TF.
    I am expecting more false breaks as the price is squeezed before the real Break out

    What I'm looking for:
    1. A strong break of structure and clear change in character of price action

    Until then I will do my best to be patient
     
    #23     Jan 29, 2025
  4. Cam12

    Cam12

    Friday

    12hr
    upload_2025-1-31_11-17-49.png

    4hr
    upload_2025-1-31_11-18-13.png

    What I'm looking for:
    1. Continuation of the current trend
    2. A puill back to test previous level between 2780-2790
     
    #24     Jan 30, 2025
    DCCapital likes this.
  5. DCCapital

    DCCapital

    Hi Cam,

    Thanks for sharing your chart analysis again, hope you had a great week and apologies for the late reply.

    I agree with you in terms of a probable pullback to retest support at 2,790 as I see as as overbought. However the news of Trump implementing tariffs is just breaking in the UK and I wouldn't be surprised if there's 25-50bps worth of downside consolidation prior to establishing another new high as Gold is moving parabolic right now with GDP data coming in weak, the fed halting rates, and now the US officially implementing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. This will certainly drive up the price of a lot of metals mined by Canada and most commodities.

    I also see a strong bull run in Platinum, Silver and Copper opened some long positions in Platinum and Copper and was getting hammered on WTI and Brent Crude until Friday night when tariff concerns began to get priced into the markets. This is the shot in the arm Oil has needed for a long time considering the overproduction and reduced demand so I expect Gold even though overbought to benefit from the wider commodities super cycle bull run.

    Price Target - retest of 2,790 before and end of the week run to 2825- 2850. Will be holding my existing positions as it's hard to swing trade on a 5m-4h time frame at ATH's, but will definitely be taking out call options on the next retrace for 2,780 expiring 23/02/25.
    XAUUSD_2025-02-02_04-46-32.png XAUUSD_2025-02-02_04-46-21.png

    Couldn't have asked for anymore this week in terms of the macroeconomics,
     
    #25     Feb 2, 2025
    Cam12 likes this.
  6. Cam12

    Cam12

    Monday

    Daily
    upload_2025-2-3_11-3-56.png

    4hr
    upload_2025-2-3_11-4-7.png

    1hr
    upload_2025-2-3_11-4-15.png

    What I want to see before looking for entries:
    Either:
    1. Price to drop again to 2780-85 and makes a reversal pattern
    2. Strength to come back into the mkt and break the current CTL

    Today I will also be watching XAUAUD closely.
    As DX is looking strong I feel like there may be better opportunities trading gold against a weaker currency.
    If I find anything good i will try and update during the day
     
    #26     Feb 2, 2025
  7. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Here's an updated EW chart. $2745 is current approx area it needs to close below to likely confirm corrective wave 4 is under way, and $2720 possible area for it to end. A lot of trading days between now and then - so who knows.

    ! XAU 01 23 25.png

    add: If above wave count is correct I suspect wave 4 will takes some time to complete unless all hell breaks loose with this nutty tariff wars speeding up vol and price movement to crazy levels. Two weeks from now is current time projection. TWT
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2025
    #27     Feb 2, 2025
    Cam12 likes this.
  8. Cam12

    Cam12

    Hey DC,

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts and charts.

    It sounds like you have been trading very actively the past week or so. I'm happy to hear you're having a good time with all of the extra volatility.

    With so much going on currently I'm trying to limit myself to only a few markets. When I spread my attention across too many things I start making many more mistakes which makes it counter-productive. Hopefully that changes in time as I gain experience.
     
    #28     Feb 2, 2025
  9. Cam12

    Cam12

    Hey Sun,

    Thanks for posting your thoughts and chart

    Are you looking to get involved if price continues to climb or are you sitting tight waiting for the deeper PB?
     
    #29     Feb 2, 2025
  10. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Yes, but with futs. I don't trade spot. Just watch it for cleaner, much of the time, price action on longer (daily and up) time frame. So I'll be watching if wave 4 transpires short a wave b retracement.

    PB - PinBar? If so I don't look for them particularly.
     
    #30     Feb 2, 2025