Friday 4hr 1hr The mkt still appears to be in a bull trend but I am unsure where I would feel comfortable entering What I am looking for: 1. Another test down between 2740 -2745. I'll be looking for my usual reversal patterns and early signs of price structure turning bullish on a 500-1000 tick chart Unless I can get a good entry with very favorable R/R I will sit to the side. The past few days I've fumbled what should have been some great trades due to being slow/hesitating when I need to get my orders off fast. Today I'd like to keep things simple and focus on executing my strategy properly
Hey Sun, Thanks for sharing your chart. I see you've got what appear to be some ABC Elliot wave patterns marked up as well as the some of the weekly opening prices. How are you trying to play the current market conditions or what are you paying attention to?
Interesting looks, thanks for your efforts in sharing them. From January 14 to 23 I had seven successful Gold trades in a row using CME instruments alone. I do look at my proprietary charts very carefully. What helped me a great deal was to stop being much concerned about what the US 10 Year Yield was doing, and the DX. There are times where such correlations do help me, but lately Gold has more of its own Energy. I keep working at understanding its behavioral patterns and quirks, like i am the pictured Cougar, who has specialized Understanding of one particular Big Game Animal, from years of both successful hunts and periods of starvation ... when I made strategic errors. I am so looking forward to this next week!
Completely agree in terms of psychologically blocking out the US10Y as liquidity continues to distort correlations. Although the DXY is still significant enough to track parallel to GC with pressure today largely coming from the dollar looking to retest 108. That being said I still see tremendous appetite in GC and expect support around 2,750 prior to a run to ATH's. I was debating whether to take profits last week but decided to run call options @ 2,735 expiring today on top of my existing positions. With equity markets pseudo rally largely driven by Chinas GDP data last week, weak PMI results today will set the tone for a correction I feel this week. That being said I see the NASDAQ from a technical perspective as oversold so have a few long positions will re-asses over the next 48 hours but certainly looking to exit in the next rally. Recalibrating my book to commodities only which I see as in the beginning of a super cycle as inflation continues to rise. New governments across the EU and US incoming spending and fiscal policies will only further cause inflationary pressures, personally I believe the FED will be forced to hike rates as early as Q2, but certainly by Q4.
Hey everyone, I was away yesterday for a public holiday in Aus Tuesday 12hr 4hr 1hr What I am seeing: On Friday price tested near the ATHs but couldn't quite make it. I am watching closely for clues as to whether the price is falling back into the larger 12hr-Daily range or if it is a normal PB before it will continue to go higher. What I am expecting: Some whipsaws in price action as the bull trend attempts to re-establish itself What I am looking for: 1. I'll be looking for signs of a reversal around 2730 for a long entry back up 2. If price breaks through my 4hr TL I will do nothing and wait for more info 3. If price moves up from here, I will wait for a clean break of the 1hr Counter trend line before I look for long setups
Good job taking advantage of the bull run last week!! Hopefully you can build on it this week! I wish I could say the same for myself. I fumbled a few of my trades last week either by hesitating for moment too long, being away from the desk and not taking profit when I should have. I don't follow bond closely but I do track DX and VIX and I know exactly what you mean about gold having its own energy. There are times when gold will trade in lock step with DX and they will rise and fall together then a few days later it will be negatively correlated (as I would expect in xauusd vs DX) where DX goes down and gold goes up.
Hey DC, I'm watching the 2750 level as well, at the moment I am leaning more to side of: Price might retest towards 2750 (not sure if it will make it all the way) then go lower to 2720-2730 before coming back up. It sounds like you've got a few trades open at the moment so hopefully some good things happen for you. Your chart looks quite busy with a lot of lines. What are you paying attention to or looking for in the markets currently?
Hey Cam, Thanks for your reply, you're better than ChatGPT , the session so far has followed your prediction, lows of around 2735. I'm cautiously watching the reaction to 2,750 on a 5 minute interval from a wider 4h frame RSI and MACD appear to be reversing to a bull run again. With the overall market certainly in a bull run, I've began to adopt the mantra of the crypto guys when it comes to Gold HODL and buy the dips lol. There's already discussion within the BOE of raising interest rates, so I think were on the money with our long positions especially considering the incoming inflationary pressures from the EU and US governments trying to spend their way toward GDP targets. DXY also seems to be struggling to get a bid @ 108 also so the conditions look ripe for a new ATH this or next week. Thank you, wish you a successful week also, you've got a great plan & chart analysis. I think the larger pullback yesterday might push us to an ATH this week as all markets got caught up in the AI sell off. I use a lot of trend lines to establish a my standard deviation, the light blue line is the average with a sd of 1 either side.