Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by iraepstein, May 18, 2007.
Thought I would post my newest article on gold and silver.
Nice report... I don't think we are entering a "bear market" for gold/silver just quite yet though. The way I look at things right now is that the metals are indeed in a seasonal period of weakness as mentioned. However the intermediate and long-term bull trends are still well intact and we will likely get a low sooner rather than later. Just as most market spectators and commentators begin to get extremely bearish on gold and silver prices, this is when the low will occur. I would only foresee the possibility of a new bear market emerging if gold had a weekly close below 635 and silver under 12.50. As long as the long term trend remains bullish then experienced traders would ideally look for prices to hold at these levels as a sign that the market has bottomed and is ready to resume it's uptrend...
So if it breaks 635 you think were going into a bear market?
I was a customer of your firm some 20 years ago when you were a 'regular' on FNN. Glad to see you guys are still here.
While I appreciate the article, I respectfully disagree with the basic premise that gold is going lower. My reasoning is that:
1. the Russian Central Bank was a big buyer when golds was last in the $650's.
2. the COT commercials were covering gold shorts in large qty last week
3. on Thurs gold went down much faster than the miners
4. on Fri miners went up faster than gold
5. G8 this weekend and China talks next week
The COT did not cover a significant amount this past week, the RCB is not some major player in the gold market and if one is trading off the gold share performance on a daily basis then you'll quickly get burned...
That's really quite a list of insults, there, troll. I bet you are one of those people that buys things just because a chart looks this way or that, huh?
BURNED? Not likely, buddy. I'm right and I KNOW I'M RIGHT. Bet against me if you like. You'll lose your money.
I guess you heard Kuwait dropped its peg to the dollar tonight. The reason was that they kept trying to defend the dollar by buying them, but they were getting swamped by speculators loaded with dollars they were happy to trade away.
Ok, here's what's next, IMO. There are other middle eastern countries like Saudi and UAE, Baihran, Oman, etc, who were ALSO all pegged to the dollar, that were supposed to join together with Kuwait in 2010 to have a middle eastern currency. They will be next to get swamped with dollars by speculators until they drop their pegs, too. Watch them drop one by one in the next few weeks...
I'd guess that's also going to affect the dollar price of oil, but who knows, that may already be priced in.
See if that doesn't appear on your chart, lets say within 4 weeks. It will show up on the gold chart, too, IMO.
TA is useful, but you really need to be on the right side of the trade, IMO.
From what I hear this got posted all over the net over the weekend on a number of boards.
I thought it would be beneath any major outfits to use web scare tactics openly. guess i was wrong.
was this a dead cat bounce or the beginning of a new runup
to multi year highs in gold and silver ?
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