Dollars are debt, not money. I bet my numbers will be way low. $5000 in the next 5 to 10 years $10000 in the next 20 years
Yeah I think your numbers are way low. Even if we didnt have a financial crisis and everything turned out ok in the next few years and going by how the dollar has lost value from being a fiat currency the last 40 years, then in the next 40 years, assuming everything turns out like the last 40 years, gold should be just under $30,000 per oz. And that would be just in good times! When you add in the debt we have, the financial crisis, the over spending. The fed has a mandate to make a one dollar bill have only 5 cents of purchasing power every 40 years. (this is why a snickers bar that cost 5 cents 40 years ago, costs $1 today) Obviously gold/silver can be manipulated to a certain extent but everything we use in our daily lives (food, energy, transportation, housing) should cost 20 times more every 40 years.
Fiat currency for the last forty years? You mean 80+right? I thought it was called inflation, the result of higher consumption , demand, from higher standards of living in supposedly civilised nations. Don't want to use the word Empires, but there are slight comparisons. The Roman Empire had inflation, and it used damn gold for currency. Gold became a fiat currency, when they couldn't find or steal any more of it to mint it. My point? It is vastly to simplistic to blame the Fed for inflation, when it's happened all throughout history, for largely the same reasons.
the big question is when the crisis occurs. as soon as it does, gold and silver will crash just like every other asset out there that is bought on margin. funds will close out profitable positions to pay for losses. it's happened each time there is a crash. so the logic would seem to indicate that gold and silver are on the precipice of a massive spike, but the logic has not shown to be the case in 2008, and each time we've had a significant equity retrace since then. when that happens is anyone's guess. until then, i am a bull, but a cautious one. i think in this move silver goes for $40 and gold $1500. after that, i will re-evaluate.
I just cashed out of half of my silver position. i agree with the following link, silver is looking toppy. no way i go short in this environment. but i'd like a better buy in level. http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty032511.html
I wouldnt follow advice from someone who blogs on a poorly designed website and gives no reason for why silver is "tired" (I mean really? What kind of calculation or tools does one use to find out if silver or any other commodity is "tired") the 3rd largest economy in the world (japan) is about to print more money than it ever has in history. QE2 is almost over and we are about to hear the next words QE3 very shortly. Monday is march expiry for silver. We are still in backwardation in silver and the rumors that some major funds are going to try to force deliver to the comex could push silver really high next week.
first, i didnt follow the advice of the blogger. i just thought it was a good read. i have my own thoughts on it. thus far, i've been right. second, you wouldn't listen to a blogger, but rumors about fund action is ok?