Gold and Oil at/near Peaks?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by gugaplex, Mar 20, 2006.

  1. gugaplex


    I think the day is nearing. Everyone and their mother is talking about these over-heated sectors. That's usually the best time to sell when the buyers have dried up.
  2. disclaimer: i've been bullish on gold, and have been accumulating gold/gold mutual fund/gold futures for 6 yrs. and have taken profit on 1/2 of my gold holdings.

    gold is a commodity.

    it aint that simple.

    look at the fundamentals, look at relative supply/demand, look at india, and look at the price of gold RELATIVE to equities.

    gold is phenomenally cheap, on a historical basis;
  3. Chagi


    Oil I agree with, gold I do not. I have some serious doubts about oil's ability to remain at around the current levels, but I feel that gold has a pretty good chance of increasing in value given the current US monetary policy.
  4. gold.

    it's a bull market

    you buy the dips. until the bull market is over.

    on both a fundamental and a technical basis. it aint over
  5. call me a contrarian indicator, but i'm just beginning to see the opportunity and value of gold as having matured from a fringe opportunity to a compelling economic reality. 30 years of monthly bars illustrate just how slow-moving the general trend can be. i'm feeling about a year late, but another side of that is that it's too hard to ignore now at these levels for people who haven't been in it all along, and don't like the inflationary connotations given how this admin spends and authors reasons to accelerate spending into perpetuity.

    now that the metals have my attention, i'm trying to figure out why gold is so depressed relative to the others. why is platinum testing 1980 highs, while gold is just lifting off..

    either way, i'll be swing trading gold long-only with a systematic framework, and attempt to keep any contracts that i can from deep winning trades, switching over to a breakeven exit.

    basically same story in crude for me. the demand is multiplying, and economic necessity of alt energy in the us seems distant. add a dash of event risk ... it feels cheap to me here

    who knows though? definitely beats the us equity intraday ginsu demonstration. i'm just discovering how much better i sleep in fundamental trades
  6. as a contrarian, i think anybody who is in gold now IS late, to some extent

    the time to buy is when EVERYBODY hates it

    and everybody hated gold several years ago...

    however, imo the bull run is far from over.

    2 words. trailing stops.

    let the rest ride
  7. i make long term (relative to a lot of ppl here) trades. i was long junior gold and silver stocks from june 05 until last week. i made about 80% on that trade...about 400K USD.

    was long dez, auy, mng, nxg, ego, grs, bgo, cde. risk reward is not there for me to stick with the trade anymore.

    my trade now is shorting the indices. this looks to be about a 3 year trade. put this on last week.
  8. if you are making so much money trading
    have you ever considered managing OPM ?

    some people do you know ... good luck and health to you in 2006 and nice to see you can make serious kachingo without needing to nickel and dime em.

  9. thanks for the kind words, setharb. i am managing OPM this month. it's a tiny amount, but the point is to show i can grow OPM rather than sell and take a management fee. it's been a very long and interesting journey to get to this point, and i still have a lot to learn and likely many humbling experiences ahead. good luck to you too.
  10. also XAU is trading @ historical discounts to the spot metals...

    hint, hint, hint...
    #10     Mar 22, 2006