I notice many gold futures contract price values are at or near six month historic high levels (to December 2013). Composite chart is attached.
The chances are much better with yesterday's breakout holding today. However, the fact that the HUI is well below its high is not good. The normal sequence is HUI->gold->dollar. As of now, gold may be leading the dollar, as the velocity of its rise exceeds the velocity of the dollar's fall. But the HUI is supposed to lead everyone, and it's not. This is usually, but not always, a sign of a false breakout. I got in in 2000, and that year the HUI bottomed in November. Gold didn't bottom until at least a year later, and the dollar only began to fall for real after that when the fiscal plans of the new Bush Admin became evident and obvious. No one noticed the HUI bottom in 2000, outside of a very few. I mentioned it once in public, and never again, since the reaction I got was that I must be Martian, or something. All eyes were on tech at that time. Now, everyone and his brother is braying about the demise of the dollar and all that. Those of us who have been through a few of these cycles know that this kind of silly talk is always popping up whenever gold makes a serious move. Means nothing, and if you trade on this kind of crap, you'll lose. I've put on a position trade, after a couple of years of being out of doing that, but I'm nervous. It doesn't look or feel like 2000 at all. I'm ready to get out if it falls through 1030. I didn't have a thought like that at all back in 2000.
There is absolutely no telling when the blow off top will come (or even if it ever comes). We could be right in the middle of it, or it could happen in a couple of years from now. I don't believe in any of those tell-tale signs like shoeshine boys giving advice or bus drivers mortgaging their house to buy gold. We won't know for certain until after the fact. That's why IMO it's good to know ones exit point beforehand. I have mine firm in place.