Urrg.... This is getting really frustrating. Drop to 500 or rise to 1500 already and get it over with.
How is is that Gold is not above 1000? The largest financial crisis in history coupled with a burning dollar? And dont give me that GATA crap. I myself dont know why, but the action is miserable for a time when gold should have been shining like a super nova. I voted NO in the poll.
One word: deflation. Gold can't rise when real wages are dropping like a stone. Duh. Which university taught you economics ?
COT Commercials seem to think gold is cheap, or they wouldn't be covering recently. IMO, it will take them another 4 weeks to cover enough that they can then allow the price to rise, and my guess is that the only reason they are covering here is because they must know in advance that the economy is in no condition for the Fed to slam on the brakes, and therefore, I would expect gold to break the $1000 level in the next 2 months. If I had to guess, I think if they are covering here, they will draw a new line in the sand somewhere between $1100 and $1200, and as usual they will have unlimited deep pockets from the Fed to short it and prevent any huge run.
Supply up. ETF demand went nuts in Q1'09, but even then, overall demand is down. Central bank net purchaser in Q2'09.
Do you have a personal view on when central banks start raising rates or are there too many unknowns to answer such a question now?
You can assign any economic term you want to match your opinion. But the bottom line is golds price action has been sideways for 1.5 years i.e miserable. Thats all I need to know to make a decision. Isnt that what this thread is about, golds price direction I mean? Using sophmoric phrases like "duh". And attempting to toss insults to anonymous people on the internet via lame sarcastic questions is juvenile behavior. And very yahoo chatroom`ish.
As many have remarked, gold's journey is tied to the USD index. Since seemingly "everyone" is short the dollar, I think we're going to see the index rally which will send gold sinking to the 800 level or so. The next few months. However, a bit further out - I agree, we're going to have to see a weaker dollar and stronger gold. I'm not putting money behind this, however.