Hello, just a simple poll to get some insight in sentiment amongst believers and non believers. Thank you for participating.
Debaser: I think gold will have a nice bull run in 09.. No doubt. In fact, all as a function of how much $$$ the world's central banks print. But gold bugs bug the crap out of me... Why do most fit in this cliche: 1) They love Ron Paul, are usually libertarian. 2) They swear by guns. 3) They are religious, usually of some Christian nutwhack denomination. 4) They buy armageddon 5) They use internet handles like RonPaul, Debaser, GoldLover... 6) They buy into foolish simpleton concepts out of Austrian economics, yet they act like they care for the 'greater good' at the same time. 7) They incessently post about their 10 ounce physical gold position (purchased at 10% spreads) online, hoping others will reinforce their same ideas and hopes.. 8) They use the word 'gummint' and tend to be from red states. [oh that bugs the crap out of me...] 9) They like country music. 10) They are obsessed with condemning fiat ... 11) They are obsessed with validating their thoughts based on the constitution's declarations. 12) They are the bulk of Americans who purchase safes. 13) They live in the middle of nowhere. 14) They are brainwashed how capitalism is good and socialism is bad. (They still believe red commies are the enemy) I think it must be a result of what happens to people who live in extended isolation...
I think $1200 is a lock this year, and on a percentage basis, I'd expect silver to perform even better. But for me personally I've been buying the GDX basket of gold mining shares, which I expect once the mainstream "gold" mania hits the general media and public will be the next bubble, and I'd expect mining shares to go parabolic. If they do, I'll be looking to unload all my metals related holdings at that point, which I'm guessing will be sometime around summer.
gold will retest 350$ as the euro first goes to 0% interest and then real fears begin to overtake the system that the euro currency will fail. dollar relative strength and deflation, along with all banks eventually being shaken out and dumping their massive stores of metals will create the bottom- from there we will see a quick reversal, but gold will not make new highs before new lows.
I think gold should fit into the international monetary system again, and I don't fit any of those stereotypes. Well, OK, most of them. For a sane view on gold, read Mundell on it (Nobel laureate, known as "Father of the Euro"). His analysis is spot on, IMO. Also IMO, I'm not sure why he favors the euro, given his views in this speech. Still can't get a handle on that...
Have you tried overlaying Gold with USD index? ImPO Gold does stand a chance to get above $1000+ as long as USD keeps weakening. The question I would raise is why $1200?