I don't think we will test the low's right away. What I do think is this is just a bounce that in a week or so the market will consolidate. I expect for a choppy market the reason I say this is because the marketmakers are not willing to make a market. If you look at the stock that were losers they never rallied they just went flat. If a specialist made a market and took on a large position he would bid up his owned stock to make a profit. The specialist, marketmakers and trading desk's are not willing to do there job's and that means a choppy market. The buying now is most likely short covering from hedge funds and that is not sustainable.
ok god #9, tell us how far it is going up ? better still, at what point going down will you admit you were wrong ?
The issue here is not whether we will be going straight back down or straight up. What people need to realize is this market was extremely oversold. More so than most of us realized. The fact that the S&P has rallied 16% changes the market dynamics. The easy money will no longer be made shorting every rally. At least in the short term the trend has changed and you will have to keep an open mind that anything is possible. Trader555 what are you trying to say that the loser stocks have only gone flat. Did you not see the moves in C, JPM, TYC etc.
Did you not see the moves in C, JPM, TYC etc ___________________________________________________ I saw a lot of stock's bounce but what I look at is how it bounced. Most stock's I notice they look like a dead cat bounce. Look at a candle stick chart of the dow bouncing then look at the stock's that led the market the last six months. Percentage wise the leaders went dow more then the market and the market bounced more then those stock's so we are starting to lose our leader stock's. That says a choppy market with quick change in intraday direction from the order book's being thin and the specialist's spreading there quotes to make up for it. As for those stock's C is the only one that looks like it will follow through with the bounce TYC and JPM look like two dog's with fleas. TYC has a specialist that doesn't want to take the other side of any large trades and JPM look's like the specialist has a position and is starting to unload what he bought 7/24 he will probably walk the stock a little higher and then get real choppy.
I am not suggesting people go out and buy the stocks I mentioned nor am I long the market. I go home flat everyday but I like to have a slight bias or idea on where the market is headed. My only point was that people should not dismiss a rally as meaningless when you see stocks, dead cat or not, bounce 40% or more. From this point I would probably short any rally with tight stops, but I would not expect to see the market hit new lows anytime soon. There are too many people looking to get long this market on any dip. As far as your conspiracy theories on the behavior of specialists I can not argue either way, don't know any of them.
thank you for the outstanding market call "faster super ego pussy"!!! could you please start a thread and teach us all the secrets of your trading superiority!!!!! if you say it's a bottom then "god" knows it must be.....where will the dow be at year end???
It will at the very minimum test 1000 (SP's). I'll admit im wrong if 870 goes, for the time being. Hows that for you. I'm not going to guess the top though, i'll let it run it's course. Just like the bottom did.
If this market follows through on the GDP number on the down side that will say nobody was expecting this and we are in for another low for the market. At this point there are no specialists, trading desks or market makers willing to buy what is being sold. This will probably be a very choppy sell off due to heavy short selling followed by huge short squeezes. This is going to be the market from Hell for everyone and the choppiness will probably start feeding on itself making it more difficult. Just like the longest bull market in history we just had we just might have the longest bear market. The bottom line in this market is trade small size, be conservative and most of all preserve capital for when the time is right. I really hoped this wouldn't happen and at this point I am questioning if I am capable of making a living trading. This market is for the best of the best and even they will have a tough time.
ok vinnie, you put your numbers out there, but I think you are too optimistic. 870 isn't that far away.