Going To Aruba?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Mar 27, 2007.

  1. Well I've been there 2 years ago and it was nice.
    Little did I know the country was being brought public by Goldman today! Well I was certainly caught short and I called my hedge fund and requested in. The response? It's Goldman don't count on much. Followed by a mysterious email 5 min to market open: " Do You Want In? " Well you don't ask the stonedinvestor do you want in on something! The answer is always yes.

    Will Goldman Sachs part with enough of their own IPO booty to throw a few shares SI's way. I felt very bad when that girl was murdered down there, bad for the girl and her family and for the country and it's tourism and I want to give if I can. I've apparently left an open ended "gimme what you can" kind of order out there it will be interesting to see how much if any I get- my guess? 300 shares. My fear? a lot more!

    ~Stoney In paradise :)
  2. Can I short Haiti, and go long the Maldives?

    Enjoy the R&R, Stoney.
  3. Well stoner, I hope it works out for you.
  4. zdreg


    not exactly aruba


    not even close but hey...till you go back.
  5. Well I guess the dead letter office didn't want to play nice had to buy in the open 4000 shares
    Opened at $14.00. Bought at $13.38.

    Come Back To Aruba! Again and Again! > SI
  6. A bit of a test for our market I think this ARUBA.
    Let's go through the series of events IPO mealtup & crash- Internet. cleansing process only good boring well capitalized companies go public amongst much scrutiny by regulators. AIM in London begins stealing all the exciting IPO"S. There is this perfect middle ground where the market accepts a stk with promise but debt heavy and gives it a slew of money and says take your shot- it's like VC. I am a venture capitalist with this pick I think esp[especially because I just found out it's not Aruba it's a tech company!

    Next up is Aruba Networks, a wireless LAN company with a lot of buzz but also accumulated losses of $89 million ($15 million in the year ended Jan. 21, 2007).

    Aruba, despite taking on formidable rivals such as Cisco and Symbol Tech (bought in 2005 by Motorola (MOT , is more than tripling its revenue.

    Aruba is a good example of a company with a history of losses that nevertheless offers plenty to entice investors. Its secure wireless networks allow users to roam around a building or campus without losing access. Many companies offer similar services, but Aruba's software has received strong reviews for its quality.

    Aruba has built up 2,000 customers in 18 months, including companies such as SAP (SAP - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Google as well as government entities such as the U.S. Air Force and schools such as the University of Washington and Ohio State, where Aruba set up the world's largest wireless LAN network.

    Like Aruba, many of the recent offerings offer narrow exposure to an area of an emerging technology. Investors seem desperate to get into these hot new sectors -- after all, if these young companies are bound for big capital gains, it's much better to get in now.

    Such thinking would justify paying a substantial premium on a company that loses money but hints that profit is just a year or two away.

    The risk in that logic is that companies usually take the money they raise and invest it to compete against bigger companies --Aruba spends to take on Cisco and Motorola. That spending can set back moving into the black. And once investors grow impatient, it pushes the stock below the offering price.

    That's why the high price-to-sales ratios are so important. Take Aruba, which is set to be priced between $8 and $10. At the middle of that range, the stock will be valued at seven times revenue. If it's priced as the top of the range -- as the more promising IPOs have been this spring -- it will be eight times revenue.

    That's not as high as some recent IPOs, but it's high compared with Cisco's price-to-sales ratio of 5 -- even after that stock's huge tear. And it's several times bigger than the price-to-sales ratio that Symbol had (2.2) when Motorola bought it. And of course it priced even HIGHER!

    >> So if ARUBA can soar it's a clear signal to me our market is ready for a new bull phase to begin. This is not a perfect company but it's no dog lot's of promise. I love the wireless stuff. Lots of applications. Due your DD. And do the right thing. I'm kind of betting big here. Come To Aruba! ~stoney