going to 1077 on the s&p500

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dotslashfuture, May 28, 2003.

  1. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    You've invested far too much of your ego in the market, Jesse.

    Too bad.
     
    #31     Jun 2, 2003
  2. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Ditto. We even had a couple of KRDs in the indices today.

    What exciting times we live in :p
     
    #32     Jun 2, 2003
  3. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    How would we define low risk?

    You mean, a short with a tight stop?


    Risk isn't determined by the stop; it's determined by the probability of the setup. If one's only means of managing risk is to use tight stops, he may as well give the money away and go do something else.
     
    #33     Jun 2, 2003
  4. I don't want to hear how you are smarter than all the experienced traders that came up with all these rules over a century.

    stick to the topic or make your own thread.
     
    #34     Jun 4, 2003
  5. Dum fenix.

    is this some sort of cheap vendetta for babak's journal?

    what's your problem?
     
    #35     Jun 4, 2003
  6. prox

    prox

    Maybe 1007
     
    #36     Jun 4, 2003

  7. 1145
     
    #37     Jun 4, 2003
  8. even more optimistic, how do you figure it ?
     
    #38     Jun 5, 2003

  9. I figure it this way:

    1. 50% retracement from SP Hi close 1527 to low 767; look back at prior cycles, Japan..even during Great Depression we had massive counter-trend move of 155%

    2. Election year cycle, after long bear 66-70 (similar to 5/70-1/73); 45% counter-trend rally into election, even with tepid fundies, and Mideast tension fomenting (just the beginning of it)

    3. real sentiment is bearish (forget the newsletters); hedgies getting creamed playing for downside (they are); when they switch sides ..we go higher still

    4. New nifty 50: Ebay, amzn, yhoo, homebuilders..no one could explain it then either

    5. Massive liquidity, low rates, and no alternatives

    6. Very high complaint levels on valuations...these people are NOT participating...if they were there would be no complaint

    7. Breadth is best of 6 prior rally attempts

    8. Market was at 1150 last spring with worse fundies than now

    9. 3 year downtrend (so far) broken at 966-70 (not lost on people)

    10. Inabilty to falter on bad news (today); wall of worry

    etc etc...or this is the most massive hoodwinking of all time!

    Best
    david
     
    #39     Jun 5, 2003
  10. 11. The myopic focus on making $$$ by shorting...

    Lots of overeducated idiots laid off from bulge houses formed hedge funds in past 3 years..they have made a mint by shorting..just as the dopey retailer did playing long in the late 90's....equilibrium is coming back to these jokers.
     
    #40     Jun 5, 2003